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Here's everything you need to know about Timberwolves vs. Suns on Friday, April 5 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.
The Phoenix Suns host the Minnesota Timberwolves in what could be a first-round playoff preview in the Western Conference. Minnesota currently sits atop the West but is in a three-way race with the Nuggets and the Thunder for the top seed, while the Suns will look to avoid the play-in tournament.
The Suns took the first matchup between these two teams back in November, but these teams will play tonight and then in the regular-season finale April 14 as they jockey for seeding.
Let's dive into the potential game script here and our Timberwolves vs. Suns pick.
Timberwolves vs. Suns Odds
Friday, April 5, 10 p.m. ET, NBA TV
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| +3.5 -110 |
220 -110o / -110u |
+128 |
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -3.5 -110 |
220 -110o / -110u |
-152 |
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are playing their fourth game in six days as they continue to be without Karl-Anthony Towns. Given that he had a similar injury to Joel Embiid (meniscus), there is optimism he could return before the playoffs.
The interesting thing about missing Towns is the team has not suffered in terms of its record. Since he went down March 4, the team is 10-4 with a +8.7 point differential. Their offensive and defensive metrics essentially mirror their season averages as well, per Cleaning the Glass. The one swing is they are playing a bit slower — about two possessions slower than their numbers before the Towns injury, per NBA Advanced Stats.
The slightly concerning thing for their offense is their expected eFG% is significantly worse than their actual eFG% (54.7% versus 56.0%) during this stretch. They have torched the nets from beyond the arc, shooting 39% as a team from distance. This is a shot Phoenix has done a decent job of limiting despite its defensive deficiencies.
Phoenix Suns
The Suns come into this game with two key players on the injury report: Jusuf Nurkić (questionable – calf) and Grayson Allen (probable – hip). Given Phoenix's relative lack of depth, especially at the center position, this could set up to be a big game for Rudy Gobert on the boards if Nurkić is unable to go. Even if Nurkić plays, Gobert has logged 20 rebounds in three of their last seven matchups.
The Suns play at a league-average Pace because of the amount of half-court offense they play. However, their defensive possession length is the fourth shortest in the league, per Dunks and Threes. Normally, this would allow other teams to get out in transition; however, the Timberwolves' offense is not designed to optimize this. They take the third-most time on each offensive possession in the league. This game should be decided in the half-court.
Timberwolves vs. Suns
Betting Pick & Prediction
When these two teams met in November, the total was 223 and the game soared over it with 248 total points scored. However, that was an outlier offensive performance for both teams, even with Phoenix's elite offense. Neither team drew an impressive amount of free throws, it was just buckets all around with the Suns shooting a blistering 56.7% from beyond the arc.
Here, the Minnesota defense has recalibrated over the course of the entire season, and the offense has slowed down without Towns. As good as Phoenix's offense is, this matchup against an elite Timberwolves defense will prove to be a tough task.
I expect points to be at a premium tonight in a game with significant playoff implications and will take the Under.
Pick: Under 220
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