NBA Best Bets: Top 7 Picks for Tuesday, Feb. 13

Heat vs. Bucks

Tuesday, Feb. 13, 8 p.m. ET, League Pass
Jaime Jaquez Jr. over 13.5 Points (FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

The Heat take on the Bucks for a Tuesday night showdown. The Heat will be without Jimmy Butler (personal), Terry Rozier (knee), and Josh Richardson (shoulder) and Duncan Robinson (arm) is also listed as questionable.

One player I expect to step up in their absence is rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Jaquez has been excellent this season, especially in an expanded role. In 16 games he’s played without Jimmy Butler, he has averaged 15.8 points in 33.5 minutes per game. He has exceeded his 13.5 points line in 12/16 games. Without Rozier, that takes away another high-usage player that can get his own shot.

While the Bucks present a tougher challenge defensively because their drop defense is so effective with Giannis and Brook Lopez on the interior, Jaime’s usage could be off the charts in this game. I expect him to see 30+ minutes tonight, and when he has done so, he’s averaged 17.2 points per game.

I like Jaime Jaquez Jr. to exceed 13.5 Points.

Pick: Jaime Jaquez Jr. over 13.5 Points

Kings vs. Suns

Tuesday, Feb. 13, 10 p.m. ET, TNT
Suns -4.5 (BetRivers)

By Michael Fiddle

My favorite number to back NBA favorites on is a -4.5 point spread, because the four most common outcomes in the NBA are 7/5/6/8, meaning you have a winning ticket on any of these numbers. That of course is not reason to blindly back -4.5 favorites. We can add nuance and note the Suns are at home, have a completely healthy core, get the addition of Royce O'Neal who should be a perfect plug and play role player to add, and are going against a Kings team that is 30-22 but has a net rating that closer resembles a .500 team.

There is early line movement towards the Suns, with a lot of the board moving to 5. Try and get in now, play the 4.5 for a full unit, play the -5 for 0.75 units if you don't get the hook on your side, and skip to -5.5 if thats the only number left.

Pick: Suns -4.5

Thunder vs. Magic

Tuesday, Feb. 13, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Magic +2.5 (DraftKings)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

The Magic have been playing great basketball thanks to their elite defense. Magic head coach Jamahl Mosley has this upstart group of youngsters, playing like a veteran 90's grind-it-out team. And the Thunder are the type of team they've had success against. When the Magic play a team with a 115 Offensive Rating or higher, they're 22-5-1 ATS (81%) under Mosley, including 12-4 this season.

There's also a pettiness to this Magic team. They don't like losing and take the losses personally, and they lost 112-100 to the Thunder in their only meeting this season. When they've lost the previous head-to-head matchup, the Magic are 66-47 ATS (58%).

I make this Magic -1 so i'll take the points here at any dog price, but I wouldn't talk you out of the moneyline either.

Pick: Magic +2.5

Thunder vs. Magic

Tuesday, Feb. 13, 7:30 p.m. ET. TNT
Jalen Suggs over 1.5 3s (FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

This matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder is an exploitable one for Jalen Suggs. The Thunder’s defense overall is good but they surrender the fourth-highest frequency of 3 point attempts and their opponents shoot about league average from deep.

One of Orlando’s best 3 point shooters this season is Jalen Suggs. Suggs takes 50% of his shots from deep and is making 39% of them.

His minutes floor has been fairly stable and when he sees 20+ minutes he is averaging 2.2 3s on 5.5 attempts. This jumps at home though, and he has a 74% hit rate on this line of 1.5 3s.

When these teams played earlier in the season, he saw 29 minutes and was just 1/9 from 3 in one of his worst shooting nights of the season. I expect a better showing from Suggs at home tonight.

I’ll grab over 1.5 3s.

Pick: Jalen Suggs over 1.5 3s

Thunder vs. Magic

Tuesday, Feb. 13, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Josh Giddey under 20.5 pts + rebs + ast (-125, DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

Overall, it's been an underwhelming season for Josh Giddey.

He still can't shoot, his scoring average is below the teens, he's not a great finisher — though it may sound like I'm referring to something else, these are all purely basketball observations.

The Australian guard, who has the worst nickname in modern basketball-reference nicknames in the SLOB Wizard — which has aged poorly — has gone under 20.5 PRA in three straight games and in five of his last seven. He's not even a consistent closer and is logging minutes closer to a sixth man than a cornerstone, only exceeding 26 minutes in two of his last 12 contests.

On top of that, that Orlando Magic defense is the reason this over/under for the game sits at 223.5, and in a possible low-scoring game, Giddey's overs ain't the ones I'm targeting.

Pick: Josh Giddey under 20.5 pts + rebs + ast (-125)

Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers

Tuesday, Feb. 13, 10 p.m. ET, League Pass
Over 214.5 (Caesars)

By Michael Fiddle

While the Wolves have the league best defense, the schedule spot presents for an offensive game. Minnesota finds themselves on the second leg of a B2B with travel to an away game vs a struggling team. I expect heavier legs, defense to be subpar, and offensive efficiency to be higher.

Digging into some reports from the beat writers, there is a strong sense Simons is going to play. He is the blazers best offensive player, and missed last game. Scoot Henderson also has a chance to play after missing last game.

We should have little fear backing an over for a team that just scored 84, because they are home and healthier.

Pick: Over 214.5

Thunder vs. Magic

Tuesday, Feb. 13, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Jalen Williams over 4.5 assists (+105, BetMGM)

By Bryan Fonseca

Williams has gone over 4.5 assists in three straight and in 14 of his last 21 contests.

Getting this at plus money could be a steal.

With Josh Giddey having a disappointing season, it opened up the potential for Williams to assert himself as the definitive No. 2 option on this team, and he has become that, along with being a lead playmaker. Action's prop projections has a nice edge on this at about 15 percent, and at +105, it's worth the shot, even against the Orlando Magic.

Pick: Jalen Williams over 4.5 assists (+105)