NBA Betting: 2024 Championship look ahead, post-Draft

Boston Celtics +460

The Celtics regressed last season and things would have looked even worse had they not strung out their series against Miami to a Game 7. Adding Porzingis definitely improves the offense, but at the cost of Smart, who I think was greatly undervalued. Boston needs Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to be better when it matters most and not defer as much as they have. Or, they seem to be hoping that Porzingis makes some of the shots that Smart was forced to take when those two gave it up. They have moved the pieces, around but I am not sure they are truly better. 

Memphis Grizzlies +2300

This assessment is based on Morant returning to action and being what we have seen for most of his career so far. This team fell off the rails last season, in part due to Morant, but they were also super banged up in that loss to the Lakers. If they are healthy next season they now have more ways to win thanks to the presence of Smart, who can be an "enforcer" without being the maniac that Dillon Brooks was. Memphis can also expect improvement from a suite of young players like Zaire Williams, Santi Aldama, and Jake Laravia. I like this as an anchor bet that will increase in value. 

Golden State Warriors +1200

I do not think Chris Paul is "done." However, I am not sure he makes the Warriors that much more of a threat to win a title with the core of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. I have no issue with trading Jordan Poole; he was way too hot and cold in the playoffs, but he was critical to the Warriors being good enough during the regular season to get there. Steph cannot carry the load for 82 games and with Draymond Green possibly gone, I struggle with how this team stays together. They are going to be a tough out in any playoff series for sure but what if they have to win on the road again and again. 

Last not but not least ...

Denver Nuggets +470

The Nuggets just won and they are a great bet to repeat. They have been building continuity for years and even though guys like KCP and Bruce Brown were important contributors, their core is in its prime and locked in. I am not sure how you can make a case for any other team right now. Best of all, Nikola Jokic is the most durable star in the league right now. I can see Michael Porter Jr. improving and Christian Braun expanding his role too. They even went "old" in the draft, getting players on the cheap who are likely to contribute right away. That's the way you do it when you are already good.