NBA Buy or Sell: Are starts by Blazers, Spurs, Lakers, Luka Doncic for real?

Keane: I’ve got two propositions for you:

1. Buy or sell the Lakers (15-2) and Bucks (14-3) finishing as the top seeds in their conferences.
2. Buy or sell Luka Doncic to finish top five in points and/or win shares (currently second and first, respectively).

Heery: I’m buying all of those faster than bros were buying bitcoins this time two years ago. Lost amid Luka-mania, Harden’s quest to average 40 per game, load management and some of the other early season hot topics is the Lakers’ 15-2 start -- the best start of any LeBron James team ever. I’m buying them getting the one seed in the West, because even on nights when their No. 9-ranked offense isn’t clicking, their No. 1-ranked defense picks up the slack. James has taken the reins on offense (25.7 ppg., 11 apg. and 7.4 rpg.) and Anthony Davis is dominating on defense. If they can get Kyle Kuzma going a little more off the bench (12 ppg.), they’ll be the most complete team in the league. 

As for the Bucks, it’s pretty simple: Unless Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.1 ppg.) gets hurt, they’ll finish with the one seed. I just watched him drop 50 on the Jazz -- he’s unstoppable when teams don’t get to scout him like it’s a playoff series. If he’s guarded one-on-one, he can get a dunk any time he wants. I’ve never seen anything like it. Milwaukee, 60-22 last season, will win about 60 again. The Sixers (11-6) are reeling a bit (Joel Embiid posted a goose egg in a loss to the Raptors) and have a lot to figure out on offense. And while the Celtics, Raptors and Heat are playing well, they don’t have the best player in the conference -- the Bucks do. 

Finally, how can I not buy Luka finishing in the top five in points and win shares right now? He scores like Harden (30.6 ppg.), passes like LeBron (9.8 apg.) and rebounds like Westbrook (10.1 rpg.). He has Dallas on fire lately (11-5) and looking ready to be a tough out in the playoffs -- and maybe even winning a series. Even if he doesn’t keep up this historic pace (he’d have the highest Player Efficiency Rating ever if the season ended today), Doncic is definitely staying in the top five of both those categories. 

Heery: Keeping with the theme of breakout players, do you buy the Raptors' Pascal Siakam as a top-five MVP contender? What about the first-ever repeat winner of the Most Improved Player award, or do you think other players have a more worthy case?

Keane: It’s funny you mention Siakam repeating as Most Improved Player after talking about Giannis, who has been a constant on the Most Improved list nearly every season. He won in 2017, after finishing third in 2016 and seventh in 2015. He was 12th in 2018, and even in last year’s MVP campaign, he finished 10th. I haven’t run the numbers, but Giannis must be the most Most Improved Player in NBA history. Siakam won’t crack the top five in Most Improved Player voting, but I do think he could be top 10 when it comes to the MVP race. He’s the main reason I think Toronto could repeat as East champions, because Marc Gasol owns Embiid, and the Bucks may have lingering PTSD from their conference finals loss.

There’s another 25-year-old Raptor who has a better shot at Most Improved Player, and his name is Fred VanVleet. He’s playing 38 minutes per game, upped his scoring to 18.5 PPG (up from 11) and he’s dishing out 60% more assists. His playing time will go down once Kyle Lowry returns, but he seems to still be on the hot streak that began when his child was born during the playoffs. Plus, this is a contract year for FVV, and his motto is "Bet On Yourself" –- bad news for opponents and doubters.

As for the other candidates, I’m buying on the Pelicans' Brandon Ingram and his 26.1 points per game, but selling on Magic Johnson’s top choice, the Bulls' Zach Lavine, who’s actually been worse this season, apart from one crazy scoring explosion against Charlotte. I’m also selling on Boston's Jayson Tatum, who’s scoring more (20.5 ppg.) but shooting worse. But the guy who might take it is Donovan Mitchell (25.6 ppg), who’s having his best season and keeping Utah’s offense afloat without much help. If he doesn’t win, expect him to wear a lot of sweatshirts featuring the dictionary definition of  “improvement.”

For another Buy/Sell, is Houston’s Clint Capela going to keep up his rebounding (14.7 per game)? If his defensive rebounding percentage clears 30%, he gets an extra 500K. With Houston playing at a much faster pace this season with Russell Westbrook, could he dethrone rebound king Andre Drummond? And as for Drummond, do the Pistons try to sell him this season, or will they try to buy some help for him and Blake Griffin?

Heery: Despite the fact that Capela has 20+ rebounds in six of the past seven games, I have a tough time seeing him dethrone Drummond (16.8 rpg), who's on a quest to win five rebounding titles in six seasons. Drummond’s got a big lead, is probably also incentivized in his contract to gobble up rebounds, and might soon have little to play for as the Pistons kind of stink (6-11), and should really consider trading Blake Griffin to jump-start a rebuild. I’m not sure if that rebuild should include Drummond, but I doubt Detroit would get the kind of offer it would need to trade one of the owner’s favorite Pistons.  

Last Buy/Sell: The first panic trade involving an underperforming team occurs before Christmas.

Keane: I don’t know if it will be an under-performing team (looking at you, Portland!) making a move for an overpaid vet (Cleveland's Kevin Love?), or a disintegrating team like the Warriors ditching a player on a one-year deal (looking at you, Willie Cauley-Stein!). But I believe we will see our first trade a week before Christmas. The combination of the free-agent signing orgy in the summer and the absolute tank jobs waiting to happen in both conferences mean that once teams can deal players signed this summer on Dec. 15, they absolutely will. Don’t make any firm holiday plans, Jae Crowder!