It might be the season of giving during the holidays, but on Tuesday we're going to do the exact opposite. And by opposite, we mean receive. Instead of giving away points for higher odds, we're going to get points with worse odds, and combine them into an alternate spread parlay.
Why, you ask? Well, there's only five NBA games to pick from, and just two college football games to pick from on Tuesday. So, instead of forcing a pair of games into a parlay with really good odds, we altered the total points and spread, and still got solid odds, but at much less of a risk.
Let's start with our first leg, the over of 226.5 points between the Utah Jazz and Detroit Pistons. The standard number from the books is currently set at 233, but we altered the total points down to 226.5. And considering both teams are above .500 on the over this season, this is a solid bet with much less risk than the original line of 233.
The Pistons have gone over the set line of 226.5 points in five straight games while the Jazz enter Tuesday's game fourth in the league in points per game. It's definitely not ideal that Utah has struggled against the over as of late, but considering they're one of the best scoring teams in the NBA and going up against the worst defensive team in the Eastern Conference, makes us feel a whole lot more confident this leg hits. Utah played on Monday night, so don't be surprised if Detroit takes advantage of a less fresh Jazz squad, and scores at least 110 points. This could be a close cover, but betting the over is certainly worth it.
As for the final leg of our parlay, take San Jose State (+3.5) against Eastern Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. SJSU is currently favored by 3.5 points against EMU, but just to be safe, we're going to take the Spartans to lose by no more than a field goal. As of now, both teams are expected to be pretty close to full strength for this one, which doesn't benefit one more than the other, however, the Spartans haven't played in a bowl game since 2015, and expect that to mean a little more to them.
The Eagles are certainly the hotter of the two teams entering Tuesday's game as EMU closed out the regular season on a three-game winning streak, but they're winless in their last four bowl games. Sure, it's nice EMU has been to five bowl games in the last six seasons (excluding the 2020 COVID-19 season), but it doesn't mean a whole lot if you don't come out on top. And don't expect that to change on Tuesday. But if EMU does indeed end its winless bowl skid, expect it to be by no more than a field goal.
Utah Jazz/Detroit Pistons over 226.5 total points AND San Jose State Spartans (+3.5) (-104 odds via PointsBet)
Bet $104 to win $100
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