NBA Cup preview: Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks

We've reached the knockout round of the NBA Cup, where the eight remaining teams face win-or-go-home games Tuesday and Wednesday night. 

First up is the Orlando Magic visiting the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday.

Orlando Magic

The Magic went 3-1 in Group A games, winning their first three matchups by double-digit scores thanks to Franz Wagner, who averaged 30.5 points in the four group-play games. They couldn't take down the New York Knicks in their final game, but having a +45 point differential going into that matchup was enough to earn them the Eastern Conference wild -card spot.

But their chances took a hit when Wagner suffered a torn oblique muscle on Friday. He'll be out for at least the next month, which means Orlando has to face Milwaukee without Wagner or All-Star Paolo Banchero, who is out with the same injury.

That means Orlando will have to lean on its third-ranked defense, hoping that the combination of Wendell Carter Jr., Goga Bitadze and Moe Wagner can slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo inside. They wanted to have Jonathan Isaac back, but he has been ruled "out" with a hamstring ailment.

They'll also need to find scoring beyond Jalen Suggs, who could thrive against the Bucks' porous perimeter defense. Sunday, the Magic's second scorer was Bitadze in a win over the Phoenix Suns. On Tuesday, look for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to look for his shot after a quiet offensive season where he's taking 7.1 attempts per game.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks haven't lost an opening-round game in two years of the in-season tournament. Perhaps Doc Rivers' team finds a new level of play for the NBA Cup, though the more likely explanation is that three of the five teams in the Bucks' group have a combined record of 27-48.

That's also the best explanation of how the Bucks turned around their season after starting 2-8: They started playing more bad teams. But they also went 2-8 in part because they were playing really good teams to start the season. Without Wagner and Banchero, the Magic are still a good defense but don't have the offense of a 17-9 team.

Meanwhile the Bucks appear to be healthy. Both Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton are available after being considered "probable" for Tuesday's game. Middleton has been a huge help for Milwaukee in his two games back, picking up 11 assists in limited minutes off the bench. The Bucks are a thin team, and Middleton's availability for 20-25 minutes really elevates the team.

There's also the Damian Lillard factor. "Dame Time" broke a six-game stretch of scoring 25 or more points Sunday, but he tends to do well in the playoffs — or a semi-playoff situation like the Cup. Lillard was MVP of the All-Star Game last season and won the newly created "Bubble MVP" award during the 2020 pandemic — literally a Mickey Mouse award.