NBA Draft Lottery could decide Pacers' long-term future

The Clippers received two first-round picks from Indiana. That part is standard. The way those picks convey, however, is anything but.

According to ESPN NBA insider Shams Charania, the Pacers’ 2026 first-round pick only conveys to the Clippers if it lands between picks five and nine. If Indiana lands in the top four of the draft lottery or between No. 10-30, the team will keep the pick — and the Clippers instead receive an unprotected 2031 first-rounder.

Read that again. The Clippers only get Indiana’s 2026 pick if it falls into one of the narrowest draft windows imaginable.

In over 20 years of following sports drafts, it’s hard to recall a protection this clever — or this consequential.

As of Feb. 5, the Pacers project to hold the third overall pick if the lottery odds play out as expected. That reality creates a fascinating — and uncomfortable — decision for Indiana. If the Pacers want the best chance to keep their pick, the incentive is clear: lose games. A lot of them. Tanking isn’t just a strategy here — it’s a pathway to franchise-altering upside.

If Indiana retains its 2026 pick and lands in the top four of what scouts consider a loaded draft class, the Pacers could fast-forward right back to the top of the Eastern Conference. Imagine a core of Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and Zubac — supported by a deep, proven bench — and then add a potential star rookie to the mix.

That’s not just a playoff team. That’s a team with the makings of a long-term powerhouse.

On the other hand, if the Pacers hover just enough to land between picks five and nine, they lose the pick entirely and hand it to the Clippers. Indiana would remain good and competitive — but possibly capped as a perennial contender rather than a dominant force.

This summer, the Pacers’ future won’t be decided by a coach’s play call or a superstar’s performance.

It will be decided by a bouncing ping-pong ball.

That tiny moment of chance could determine whether Indiana builds the next Eastern Conference dynasty — or simply stays close, forever knocking on the door.