NBA first round Eastern Conference Playoff preview

Key to the series: 

Can Washington contain Toronto’s incredible second unit? The Raptors have a tremendous advantage on the bench against virtually every team in the league. This puts a major onus on an opponent’s subs and makes the task of stopping the Raptors doubly tough. Even if you contain DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet or another member of the bench can torture you. 

Player to watch:

Is it fair to say VanVleet again? If the last time you remember watching VanVleet was during his Wichita State tenure, you might be surprised to see that his game has translated plenty well to the NBA. He attacks the rim with aplomb and is the straw that stirs the drink for Toronto’s super subs. 

Prediction:

The Wizards have a nice one-two punch in the form of Bradley Beal and John Wall, but the Raptors have something more akin to a one-two-three-four-five-six-seven-eight-nine-10 punch. Ten is greater than two, and ten divided by two happens to be five, which seems like the right number of games here. 

Raptors in 5

No. 2 Boston Celtics (55-27) vs. No. 7 Milwaukee Bucks (44-38)

Key to the series:

Can Boston’s team-wide approach to defense contain the Greek Freak? Giannis Antetokounmpo is a force of nature, and while Al Horford has had a superb year as the anchor of the league’s third-best defense, no one player is going to handle Antetokounmpo by himself. Boston’s margin for error is slim because Kyrie Irving won’t be around to take over games late and hit big shots to pave the way to victory. If the defense isn’t excellent, the Bucks could pull the upset.

Player to watch:

Boston’s Terry Rozier made a big leap forward in his third season, garnering some deserved attention for the league’s Most Improved Player award. He’s the kind of guy who could go off in a given game and completely turn the tide, and the Bucks will have to respect his ability to score from anywhere on the court. A big series from Rozier could be enough to push Boston over the top.

Prediction:

Too much Greek Freak, too much scoring balance behind him in the form of Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe in particular, and not enough of all of those things in Boston with Kyrie Irving unavailable. If Irving was healthy, Boston would be the pick, probably in five or six. He’s not, so they’re not.

Bucks in 7

No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers (52-30) vs. No. 6 Miami Heat (44-38)

Key to the series:

Are the kids alright? The question is both figurative, and in the current case of Joel Embiid, literal. Philadelphia’s young stars exploded onto the scene this season, with Ben Simmons taking the league by storm, Embiid staying mostly healthy and dominating, and Markelle Fultz figuring out his shot enough to get on the court and give Philly yet another athletic, rim-threatening weapon to utilize. The big question now is how much time Embiid will miss after he suffered a fractured orbital bone in late March.

Player to watch:

If Embiid’s orbital bone is the most important injury Philly is dealing with at the moment, Redick’s tight lower back is a pretty close second on the list. If he can’t go, Miami will have a very good chance of at least splitting the first two games on the road, and might even be able to put Philadelphia in an 0-2 hole. If Redick is good to go, he turns into arguably the 76ers primary scoring option — and a very good one at that. 

Prediction:

I have no idea how much time Embiid will miss, how much time — if any — Redick will miss, or whether or not Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz will suddenly wilt under the playoff spotlight. What I do know is that the 76ers have won 16 games in a row, Simmons looks like a destroyer of worlds, and that they’re very possibly peaking at the right time. Even with the injuries, and fully aware that Miami has a stout defense, I’m simply not willing to pick against the city of Philadelphia in the year 2018. 

76ers in 7

No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers (50-32) vs. No. 5 Indiana Pacers (48-34)

Key to the series:

Will Victor Oladipo get any help? Will it matter if he does? Oladipo has had a superb season and should be a lock for the Most Improved Player award, but there isn’t much behind him on Indiana’s roster that strikes fear in your heart. Oladipo will be the focal point of the Cavs’ defensive game plan, and if Indiana’s secondary scoring can’t make Cleveland pay, this will be a particularly short series. One feather in the Pacers’ cap is that they went 3-1 against Cleveland this year, but those wins came before Cleveland completely overhauled their roster.

Player to watch:

I mentioned secondary scoring above, and one guy that might be suited for the task of picking up the slack behind Oladipo is Domantas Sabonis, whose numbers jumped across the board after coming to the Pacers from Oklahoma City. Sabonis playing well probably won’t be enough to win Indiana the series, or even a few games, but it could make things much more interesting.

Prediction:

The Cavaliers losing this series would be a truly shocking outcome. They have the best player, the better overall roster, and a wealth of experience. This is a bad matchup for Indiana, a team simply in need of more offense to compete with what the Cavs can throw at them. 

Cavs in 4