NBA free-agency FAQ: What could happen in unsettled league

Whom does a reduced cap hurt most? 

Primarily this hurts any player who will become a unrestricted free agent this year. For example, Danilo Gallinari (Thunder) and Derrick Favors (Pelicans) are going to have limited options, and Andre Drummond (Cavaliers), Gordon Hayward (Celtics) and DeMar DeRozan (Spurs) will almost certainly pick up their player options rather than test this shrunken market. There are also limited options for restricted free agents, as a shrunken market limits their chance to get an offer sheet from another team. 

Finally, this hurts any player with a max extension that kicks in whenever free agency begins. Those are tied to the level of the cap, so Ben Simmons (76ers), Jamal Murray (Nuggets) and Pascal Siakam (Raptors) are going to lose money from deals that were set at 25% of the cap. That’s also going to hurt the earning power of anyone signing a max deal, specifically Anthony Davis, who was poised to re-sign with the Lakers for the max this summer

For their teams, that could lead to huge savings, because if the NBA and its cap levels return to any kind of normalcy, the players are still locked in under a slightly cheaper max. Also expect a lower mid-level exception, a lower rookie scale and a lower veteran minimum because they are also tied to the cap. Last year, the veteran minimum ranged from $898,310 to $2.565 million, depending on the players’ experience, and the rookie scale went from $9.757 million (Zion) to $1.951 million (No. 29 pick Keldon Johnson). No. 30 pick Kevin Porter Jr. signed for 80% of the rookie scale amount, $1.29 million.

Is there going to be a cap spike in 2021-22? 

Unless the NBA Players Association and the league negotiate some kind of arrangement with the cap, the year after next is going to have a cap spike, similar to the one in 2016 that allowed the Warriors to sign Kevin Durant. That year, a massive new TV deal kicked in and the cap jumped from $70 million to $94 million, essentially giving every team in the league a chance to give out huge contracts that July. Coincidentally, another former MVP (hint: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks) could become a free agent next summer. Since the cap depends on what the league made the previous year, if 2020-21 has anything close to a full season and playoffs, the revenues and the cap are going to rise dramatically for that one year. 

Most likely, the parties will try to cut a deal that reduces the volatility of the cap movement, like they did in 2011 when the lockout reduced the season to 66 games but the cap stayed the same. If not, then we’ll see a lot of free agents cashing in on the wide-open summer of 2021 market, Timofey Mozgov-style. A large percentage of the worst NBA contracts of all time were signed that summer, including a four-year, $64 million contract for Mozgov with the Lakers and a four-year, $72 million deal for Joakim Noah in New York. When teams have all that cap space, they’re going to use it on someone, even if it’s a center who’s already washed up.

Where are the top free agents going to end up? 

Most of them will go back to their old teams, because there’s not a lot of cash out there. But we’ll take a shot at predicting the top-10 guys. 

Anthony Davis: He seems like a lock to go back to the Lakers, but he may wait to sign a long-term maximum deal until the cap is higher. Regardless, expect him to re-sign with the Lake Show, but perhaps on a shorter deal with a player option, to protect himself from injury but give him the chance to sign a larger max. 

Brandon Ingram: After his All-Star campaign, it was unlikely that New Orleans was going to let the 22-year-old Ingram leave in restricted free agency anyway. He’ll probably sign for the max and stay in the Bayou. 

Fred VanVleet: Toronto’s playoff hero has a mantra of “Bet On Yourself” that he believes in so much that it’s printed on his personal merch. Why not bet on himself just across the border in Detroit, where the Pistons need a point guard like FVV, who provides shooting, defensive toughness and leadership? 

Andre Drummond: He may have planned to opt into next year’s $28.75 million contract before the world shut down, but the pandemic probably clinched his decision to sit out free agency. Besides, Cleveland can use his defense and rebounding. The Cavaliers must get rid of some of their other high-priced players who also play center. 

Montrezl Harrell: He looks like he has become too good and too expensive to stay a bench player with the Clippers. Look for Harrell to return on a big one-year deal and try to win a title, then test the market in 2021. 

Gordon Hayward: Hayward is almost a lock to come back for his $32 million player option next year. The only other possibility is that the Celtics commit to him long-term at a slightly lower salary level. He's far from a durable player, and the Celtics already have Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown on the wing. 

Bogdan Bogdanovic: The Kings traded two second-round picks to dump Dewayne Dedmon at the deadline, seemingly with retaining Bogdanovic in mind. But in general, players who get the chance to leave Sacramento usually do, and he seems like exactly the player the Knicks would give a big offer sheet. 

Danilo Gallinari: The Thunder held onto Gallinari at the trade deadline after almost making a deal with Miami. The Heat is hoarding its cap space for 2021 and the bumper crop of free agents, but would Miami sacrifice that space to get the unrestricted Gallinari? It really comes down to how confident Pat Riley is about convincing Giannis to take his talents to South Beach. 

Derrick Favors: Favors played well alongside Zion this season, but so did everyone on the Pelicans. New Orleans has his Bird rights, so it might bring him back on a short deal, but this is a guy who would help Charlotte a lot, and the Hornets have the means to get him. 

Evan Fournier: Fournier has a player option that he might pick up in Orlando if the market looks unwelcoming. If he does test the market, he’d be a nice fit alongside Trae Young in Atlanta, where he could shoot a bunch of threes and provide length on defense. 

So, what’s going to happen? 

Anyone expecting a bonanza like last year’s first day of free agency must dial back expectations. But with a disappointing draft awaiting, a tight market, and a lot of players under contract, we should see a lot of trades. After all, GMs are going to have plenty of time to chat with each other and talk themselves into deals while they’re isolated, because imaginary sports is all we have right now.