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Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) and Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15). Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

NBA futures: Nikola Jokic won't be the MVP favorite for much longer

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 1/19/24

We just passed the halfway point in the 2023-24 NBA season, so the futures markets are starting to solidify into close races between three or four players. To no one's surprise, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid are once again in a battle atop the MVP odds board. Jokic is holding strong as a slight favorite over the reigning MVP, but he won't be there for long.

Bet Joel Embiid to win MVP before it's too late

As of this writing, Jokic is a slight favorite to win the MVP award at +240 odds. Embiid is right behind the Denver Nuggets big man at +260, but that's about to flip.

Embiid is having his best season as a pro. The Philadelphia 76ers star is leading the NBA in scoring at 35.1 points per game, which is also two points higher than his previous career high. He's also averaging a career-high 6.1 assists per game, and he's been a force on the defensive end with his 1.9 blocks per contest.

If that wasn't enough, Embiid just put up 41 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds in a head-to-head win against Jokic's Nuggets. That performance pushed Embiid down to +260, but there's still value at the current price because of where it's going.

Just look at the statistical comparison between the two. Jokic dominated the advanced metrics in recent years, but Embiid is actually ahead of him in player efficiency rating, win shares per 48 minutes and more.

Embiid Jokic

Points per game:    35.1 25.5
Rebounds per game: 11.6 11.9
Assists per game: 6.1   9.1
Blocks per game: 2.9    0.9
PER: 34.4 31.3
Win shares per 48 mins: .304    .301
Box plus/minus: 12.3 13.7

If the season ended right now, Embiid would win MVP in a landslide. The only reason he's priced behind Jokic is that he's already missed 10 games. Players must appear in a minimum of 65 regular season games to be eligible for awards, so Embiid will have to play in 36 of the team's final 43 games to qualify.

The good news is we know how much Embiid cares about the MVP award, so he's going to do everything in his power to meet the minimum threshold. The Sixers also have only six back-to-backs left on the schedule, so Embiid could rest on the second night of all of them and still be eligible for MVP.

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