NBA Insiders Predict Keegan Murray's Contract Extension With Kings

Why it Gets Done

Both Zach Lowe and his guest, Fred Katz, bring up two big things when it comes to Murray. 

First, they bring up Keegan’s agent, Mark Bartlestein, who has a history of getting these kinds of extensions done. Bartlestein represents Herb Jones and Brandon Clarke, who both secured extensions after their rookie deals. Murray will likely command more than both Clarke and Jones received on those deals (Jones has since signed another three-year deal), but Bartlestein’s track record is definitely there. 

Second, Katz makes the slightly depressing point that Keegan represents a lot of Sacramento’s youth, which gives him some leverage in negotiations. Katz also discusses what would need to happen for Murray to secure a deal in the $30 million per year range.

“If he says I want 30 (million), I think the question there is, do the Kings believe he can do more stuff with the ball than he has shown the first three years,” Katz said.

Is Murray worth $30 million?

Katz raises a valid point. There aren’t many guys who aren’t on-ball creators that command $30 million per year. He brings up Jalen Johnson as a great example of a player who didn’t show much on-ball prowess before Atlanta extended him, but he clearly had the potential and showed it when Trae Young went out. 

Murray has yet to show much with the ball in his hands, but he’s not too far removed from his high usage role at Iowa. College and the NBA are different beasts, but there are plenty of examples of traditional 3 & D players expanding their game. This season will be huge for Murray as he looks to show the Kings that he is worth a big extension. 

Murray’s usage has gone down year after year, and adding Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan certainly makes it a lot more challenging for Keegan to get the on-ball reps he needs.

Murray mentioned working in the pick-and-roll more during media day, but he will need to find ways to be aggressive even when plays aren’t being called for him. That means driving on aggressive close-outs, posting up smaller defenders, and playing with force in transition. Keegan started to show some of this last season, but he still needs the opportunities. 

Murray barely played in the pick-and-roll or isolation last season (0.4 and 0.2 possessions per game, respectively), but he averaged 1.25 points in isolation, which was good for 6th in the entire league. Even though the volume of possessions is very low, the numbers show that Murray could become an efficient isolation scorer.

Improving Aggression and Fundamentals

The biggest area of improvement for Murray needs to come in the form of his ball-handling skills. Too often last season, Murray was forced to pass out of a good isolation opportunity because he couldn’t keep his dribble. Murray plays a cautious brand of basketball and tends to avoid any chance of turning the ball over, but maybe that needs to change as well. 

I don’t think anyone expects Murray to suddenly turn into Malik Monk, but taking more chances on the ball will bring more opportunities. First, the coaching staff needs to empower him to make some mistakes with his aggression, something he alluded to during media day. It’s no accident that the most turnover-prone players in the league tend to be some of the most prolific scorers and playmakers. 

When, and How Much?

All of this will just be speculation, and only Murray knows what number will ultimately be acceptable to him, but I have to agree with Katz. As of now, I believe Murray is worth $25 million a year for Sacramento, but to get that number closer to $30 million, he will likely need to expand his game. 

The other piece of this is the fact that the Kings really cannot afford to lose Murray and might be forced to pay more than they’re comfortable with, even if Murray doesn’t improve on his game. The Kings can extend Murray at any time, but their cap situation remains a big roadblock. 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see negotiations drag out for another year as Sacramento looks to free up space under the luxury tax and navigate the apron system. 

My final prediction? Murray gets extended at $28 million per year, but it doesn’t happen until one or more of Sacramento’s veterans are moved.