Pacers vs. Bucks Game 5 prediction, odds, pick for 4/30: Bucks hurting, but still worth your bucks?

Pacers vs. Bucks Odds

Tuesday, Apr 30, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Indiana Pacers

My most likely lean is going to be toward fading the Pacers. That might seem crazy at first blush, as they are on the precipice of their first series win as a franchise in 10 years, but there are some significant cracks below the surface.

The Pacers won Game 4 by 13, but here's a full list of things that broke their way: Antetokounmpo and Lillard were out for the full game, Middleton was playing on a sketchy ankle, Bobby Portis was tossed in the first quarter and they hit a franchise-record 22 3s on 51.2%, including 7-of-9 from their center Myles Turner.

Despite all of that, it was a two-possession game with under 10 minutes to go, thanks to a Pacers defense that is always going to let teams hang around, and another rather lacking performance from their superstar. Tyrese Haliburton did have his highest scoring game of the series so far, but it just didn't have the impact he typically brings to the court — and that's been true all series. He had only four assists and tallied three turnovers. The points were there, but the impact he typically has warping a defense and finding holes wasn't.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks, on the other hand, got the best game of the series, by far, from Brook Lopez (27 points and nine rebounds), as well as a strong night from Malik Beasley (20 points on 12 FGA), in a much-needed increased role.

The line right now is Pacers -4, which tells me the books don't think it's likely that Dame or Giannis play, but they think Middleton will. The Pacers closed -10 in their home Game 4, so if we flip home court, it should be around Pacers -5. The one point is likely the baked in possibility of Dame or Giannis playing, albeit a very slight possibility since both players would be worth several points to the spread.

Pacers vs. Bucks

Betting Pick & Prediction

With all that considered, I am once again asking bettors to wait this out. Here's how I'd play this game: If Giannis and Dame are out, but Middleton plays, and bettors can get +5, I am going to take that spread and sprinkle the moneyline. If Giannis and Middleton play, and the number is around a pick 'em, this is going to be a best bet. Giannis would be massive for defensive flexibility for the Bucks, and even off an injury, I'd be all over this Bucks squad, and even looking to play them on series' lines.

The way one that I probably won't be looking towards Milwaukee is if Dame plays, but Giannis doesn't. In this series, I just don't value Dame as much as the spread move is going to. I won't be on Indiana, I just likely won't be on a side if it moves to around Pacers -1.

For a player prop, my favorite is going back to the well on Haliburton under 18.5 points (-120 via FanDuel). He just hasn't been his aggressive self in this matchup (which seems partially due to Patrick Beverley, but also potentially a game that doesn't translate perfectly to the playoffs at this moment); he has six FTA all series! I would only not play this if Lillard plays.

Pick: (Likely) Bucks ATS, but wait for injury news | Tyrese Haliburton Under 18.5 Points