NBA Playoff Pick: Timberwolves vs. Thunder

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have been chilling (except perhaps for Rudy Goebert, as it appears he has been dealing with some moving parts on the home front) for the past five days since dispatching of the Warriors. 

The odds on the series opened with Oklahoma City right around -265 across the board, but that number was gone almost right away, spiking up to -330, where it’s settled in as of this writing (eight hours before Game 1 tip-off). Bigger picture, the Thunder are a -175 odds-on favorite in the NBA championship odds, with Minnesota at +530.

Tonight’s line for the series opener has the home team at -7.5. We see some value in that number on the underdog side. We get why the books hung that number, as the Thunder money is going to flow, and anything lower would have been steamed by the public. 

Both teams rely heavily on their defense to power their success. Minnesota has a lineup that can dominate the paint and protect the rim, soaking up a ton of rebounds. This will be a clear step up in the level of defense they’ve faced thus far in the playoffs. OKC can roll wave after wave of defenders to contain Anthony Edwards and the T-Wolves supporting cast. And they force turnovers, which could become a problem as the series progresses. 

This is a decent matchup overall for Minnesota. They’re going to have issues with the Thunder defensive effort, and will need to withstand those runs this OKC team can go on if they’re going to find a way to win, but their 3-point efficiency, and stellar D of their own will serve them well. 

We don’t put much stock at all in regular season results when handicapping playoff matchups, but looking back at the meetings between these two this season, in a series 2-2 split, Minnesota stayed within single digits in the losses, and as noted, won the other two games (a solid feat vs. an OKC team that led the league in per game point differential at +12.9.

A trend worth noting is home favorites in a conference finals matchup that are fresh off a game seven win have a record of 1-7 ATS in the last eight times this setup was live. It’s just a trend, but did stick out. 

Getting 7.5 points on a rested Minnesota team that should have a strong showing on the boards, we’ll back the team we believe should get a few more possessions.

Play: We’re on the Timberwolves +7.5 (-110) to cover as road underdogs.