NBA props: Betting on plenty of threes

We have been targeting three-pointer props for two straight weeks now, and while there have been some bad nights, it's been an overwhelmingly positive experiment.

The logic here has been to simply find the high-volume shooter on a team playing a good opponent for letting in threes.

The approach is to then ladder up the threes, choosing the standard over/under and alternate totals at great plus-odds. I've been typically placing .5 units on each bet.

This betting style has made it possible to lose more than we win but still net a profit, and we'll continue the strategy this week.

This Monday in the NBA has a lot of promising defensive targets, and with shooters opposite them, I have five targets tonight for three-point props.

Lauri Markkanen

The Cavaliers face off against the Orlando Magic, a team that allows the sixth-most threes per game.

Not only does Orlando struggle with total number of threes, but the Magic have also allowed opponents to shoot the sixth-highest percentage from long range this season.

Markkanen has emerged as my favorite target for threes on Cleveland, averaging 7.8 attempts in his last five. While that number is slightly buoyed by two games with 12 and 10 attempts, he's had a solid floor of six more often than not.

I also think just the fact you are seeing multiple double-digit attempt games shows the volume Markkanen is capable of.

In his lone game against the Magic this year, Markkanen made four threes on eight attempts.

I find the odds here to be quite tremendous. I'm going up the complete ladder here simply because his odds for five were so incredible I would hate to miss out.

Yes, they've got me right where they want me, but maybe the mistake is theirs. Markannen has five-plus threes in four games this year. Tonight seems like a great opportunity to make that five.

I'm putting .25u on the third leg here.

Betting options:

• 3+ threes (+134 FanDuel)
• 4+ threes (+370 FD)
• 5+ threes (+1000 FD)

Buddy Hield

We turn next to Buddy Hield, who faces an Atlanta defense we've targeted plenty of times the last few weeks.

The Hawks have allowed the ninth-most threes per game this season and have seen opponents shoot 36.4% from deep against them, the fourth-highest mark in the league.

Atlanta also struggles against guards, and Hield is averaging 7.8 attempts from long range in his past five games. What makes that average more impressive is that it includes a two-attempt game.

Hield's line is up to 3.5, and his hit rate at that number is admittedly low. I'll be placing just .75u on the first leg and not laddering, which partly makes up for the extra .25 on Markannen. 

Betting options:

• 4+ threes (+134 FD)

Justin Holiday

The Kings are a team to consider tonight, going up against a Miami team allowing the seventh-most threes per game.

With no De'Aaron Fox, there is shot volume up for grabs, and it seems that Justin Holiday has been the one capitalizing, averaging 7.2 attempts from long range per game in his past five.

This may sound counterintuitive, but I kind of like that Holiday has made over 2.5 threes only once during that stretch. (The game he did hit, he finished with six.)

That screams to me that more makes should conceivably come, so why not tonight?

Betting options:

• 3+ threes (+122 FD)
• 4+ threes (+300 FD)

Keldon Johnson

Yep, Keldon burned us his last game out, but he deserves another chance.

Johnson is averaging eight three-point attempts per game in his last 10 and last five. He's sported elite volume for some time now, and despite going 1-for-5 on Saturday, I'm willing to write that off as an aberration.

Tonight it's the Rockets, which allow the eighth-most threes per game and struggle guarding wings.

These odds feel reasonable to me. I'm placing .75u on the first leg and .25u on the second.

As of this writing, FanDuel hasn't offered alternate lines for threes, so be sure to keep your eyes peeled on if/when that opens up.

Betting options:

• 3+ threes (-125 FD)
• 4+ threes (TBD)

Tre Mann

We finish with Tre Mann, who gets one of my favorite defenses to target in the Portland Trail Blazers.

Portland has let opponents shoot the highest percentage from deep this season and has allowed the third-most threes per game.

There's plenty to like here, and Mann has been the most reliable shooter on the Thunder as of late.

Mann has gone over his 2.5 line in six of his past eight games and is averaging 9.2 three-point attempts per game in his past five.

I like the volume, with three games over 11 attempts, and the opponent, so give me Mann to close out the evening.

Betting options:

• 3+ threes (-152 FD)
• 4+ threes (+176 FD)

Good luck tonight. Let's start this week right!