New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns Game 5 odds and best bet

With New Orleans winning on Sunday night, this series has quickly become the most interesting of the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Phoenix was supposed to sweep away the Pelicans with ease, but nothing about this series has been easy for the defending Western Conference champs. 

You can say that things turned when Suns guard Devin Booker got hurt, and that has definitely been a factor, but more than that the Pelicans have gotten under the skin of the Suns and are definitely not backing down. They are not as deep as Phoenix, and certainly not as good defensively, but the better team does not always win.

I have not always been a fan but it is hard not to like what New Orleans forward Brandon Ingram has been doing for the Pelicans. Their offensive versatility is impressive, too, and you have to wonder what their next move is with Zion Williamson whether they win or lose this series.

The Suns are still pretty heavy favorites at home in Game 5, which is suddenly a must-win for Phoenix. 

Game Info

New Orleans Pelicans (2-2) vs. Phoenix Suns (2-2)
Tuesday, April 26, 2022
Footprint Center, Phoenix, Ariz.
10:00 p.m. ET
TNT

Betting Odds

Spread: Pelicans +6.5 (-110), Suns -6.5 (-110)
Total: 215.5
Moneyline: Pelicans +205, Suns -245

Best Bet

Over 215.5

I was not shocked that Phoenix dropped Game 4, but it was surprising that they basically lost their composure in doing so. They are missing Booker's scoring, but at the same time, they seem to have shaky confidence as opposed to the certainty they showed throughout the regular season. It is actually pretty astounding to watch. 

Phoenix is likely to win this game, but I like the over on the total more than the spread. In looking at the numbers we see an under in Game 1, followed by three straight overs. Oddly, the totals have been coming down which is definitely at odds with a series where the underdog Pelicans are getting more and more comfortable (and they still don't play tough defense)

Quite simply, New Orleans has more scoring than Phoenix right now, and it is to their advantage to have a high-possession game where the likes of Ingram, CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas can put up a lot of points. They know it, too.

Phoenix counters by leaning on DeAndre Ayton and Chris Paul, but neither of those guys are players who are going to hoist up a lot of shots, they are more high-efficiency offensive players. The likes of Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder and Cam Johnson can get hot, but their games are definitely more complimentary.

In suggesting the over, I am noting that every game in this series has seen the winning team score at least 110 points, and in the only under in the series, New Orleans failed to score 100 points. Since then, the Pelicans have not scored under 111 points in a game as they had made it a series. 

Tuesday night, look for a brisk game with a lot of scoring with the home side making just a few more winning plays late. Experience still matters but the bounce back is not going to produce a game with both teams scoring in the 90s.