No team's offseason rocked by Durant's injury more than Warriors'

When Kevin Durant limped off the court two minutes into the second quarter of Game 5 of the NBA FInals, the effects of his Achilles' tendon injury reverberated across the league. Not only is one of the two or three best players in the NBA out of the Finals, the top free agent in the 2019 class may be out of the market entirely. Multiple teams have made Durant the centerpiece of their off-season strategy, but now that he’s likely out for all of next season, too, the timeline changes for all those teams. And if Durant doesn’t like the choices available, he may choose to pick up his $31.5 million player option, spend the year rehabbing, and hit free agency in 2020, which has huge consequences for the Warriors’ personnel plans as well.

Warriors GM Bob Myers announced after the game that Durant had an Achilles injury, the extent of which will be determined by an MRI, but the initial prognosis is dire. DeMarcus Cousins, who is bigger than Durant but three years younger, came back from his Achilles tear after missing just shy of a year. Wes Matthews was the quickest to recover, returning eight months later in 2015, so even the most optimistic projection for Durant means he’s out through the All-Star break. And given what just happened when he tried to rush back from an injury, we’d expect Durant to take a cautious approach to his return. Realistically, a team signing Durant this summer can’t expect to reap the benefits until 2020-21.

That might be fine for a team like the Knicks, who cleared salary and amassed draft picks  to get ammunition for trades and make room for two maximum contracts. KD's presence in Madison Square Garden would be huge, regardless of when he actually took the floor. But it does affect their pursuit of Anthony Davis, who this week leaked that he only wanted to go to the Lakers or Knicks. After his experience with so many injured teammates in New Orleans -– Jrue Holiday, Ryan Anderson, the aforementioned Boogie Cousins -- is The Brow willing to wait a year for Durant? And 34-year-old LeBron James certainly doesn’t want to wait a year for KD to play for the Lakers. Durant’s rumored team-up with Kyrie Irving is also in doubt, given Kyrie’s own injury struggles have knocked him out of two postseasons. Chronic knee problems don’t get better with age, and Kyrie might not want to wait for Durant.

The Nets and Clippers would also ink Durant long term, but it affects the timing of their other moves. The Clippers could get a second max slot by attaching draft assets to dump Danilo Gallinari’s $22 million deal this summer, but if they got Durant, they might save their picks, wait for the deal to expire, and direct their cash toward the 2020 free- agent class. Brooklyn might make a very different decision about matching offers for restricted free agent D’Angelo Russell, given Durant’s potential lack of availability for 2019-20. Interestingly, one of the free agents who becomes more desirable to the teams with buckets of cap space is Cousins, whose own Achilles injury chilled his free-agent market last summer.

However, the biggest consequences of the Durant injury are for his current team. The easiest move for Durant is to stay put, collect his $31.5 million, and make up his mind next year, though he may not want to do his rehab with the same medical staff that cleared him to play in the Finals. The Warriors might still give him his five-year max contract, out of respect for his generational talent and guilt over his injury. 

But keeping Durant makes it far more likely that the Splash Brothers break up. Klay Thompson is a free agent, and while he’s the owner’s favorite player, he could be a casualty if the team gets spooked by a luxury tax bill of over $100 million next year. Anything less than a max offer, and Klay could head elsewhere. And if they believe a KD-free team isn’t a title contender, Golden State could look to trade Andre Iguodala and his $17 million salary, or even move Draymond Green one year ahead of his own free agency.

Advances in medicine mean that an Achilles injury is no longer a career-ender, but it’s still the worst injury in basketball. Dominique Wilkins is the only true post-Achilles success story, coming back to make multiple All-Star teams, and Rudy Gay hasn’t lost much since his 2017 injury, but those are the exceptions. Players now come back from Achilles tears, but few come back quite the same. 

Although we won’t know how Durant’s future career is affected for many months and countless MRIs, we already know that the injury has blown up the summer plans of half the league. One tear to one man’s tendon may break up a dynasty and change the trajectory of the entire league. But one thing is clear: Teams will think twice about letting their training staffs leave over money, because nothing is more expensive and destructive than a star player’s injury.