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Nuggets' First-Round Playoff Opponent Is Becoming Clear
Jan 30, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) in the second quarter against the Los Angeles Clippers at Ball Arena. Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Nuggets' First-Round Playoff Opponent Is Becoming Clear

Originally posted on Denver Nuggets on SI
By Logan Struck  |  Last updated Apr 1, 2026 11:00 AM ET

With a Phoenix Suns loss on Tuesday night, the Denver Nuggets officially clinched a playoff spot, becoming the fourth team in the Western Conference to do so. With just six games left in the regular season, they sit in fourth place with a 48-28 record, and as they inch closer to their fourth straight 50+ win season, they are getting an idea of who they will face in the first round of the playoffs.

The currently sit just two games behind the Los Angeles Lakers for third place, but 1.5 games ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves and Houston Rockets, who are tied for fifth place. While that means there is room for things to get shaken up, with just six games remaining, some things are starting to settle.

The most likely scenario for the Nuggets is to finish fourth in the West and host either the Timberwolves or the Rockets in the first round.

Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Current West playoff picture

The current Western Conference playoff picture, before games on April 1:

  1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 60-16
  2. San Antonio Spurs: 57-18
  3. Los Angeles Lakers: 50-26
  4. Denver Nuggets: 48-28
  5. Minnesota Timberwolves: 46-29
  6. Houston Rockets: 46-29
  7. Phoenix Suns: 42-34
  8. LA Clippers: 39-37
  9. Portland Trail Blazers: 39-38
  10. Golden State Warriors: 36-39

The play-in tournament is practically locked up, with the Suns, Clippers, Blazers, and Warriors as the four teams fighting for the final two playoff spots, but that will not affect the Nuggets in their first-round matchup. The only thing the Nuggets will be monitoring during the play-in will be whether the Clippers and the potentially healthy Warriors can come out on top, making life much more challenging for the Thunder and Spurs, their two biggest threats.

When looking at Denver's potential first-round matchup, though, it will be very hard for them to move up to third place with only a handful of games left, and even if they do, they would still be set to face either the Timberwolves or Rockets in the first round.

Who would the Nuggets rather face?

Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

If it were up to the Nuggets to choose between the Timberwolves and the Rockets, while both teams are capable of taking down Denver, they would likely prefer to face Houston.

The Nuggets have a combined 6-2 record against both of these teams this season, but have had success slowing down Rockets star Kevin Durant. Of course, the Rockets have other stars to worry about, like Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson, but slowing down Durant would give the Nuggets a significant edge in a seven-game playoff series.

The Nuggets have not had the same success against Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards. The Timberwolves, when at their best, are one of the most dangerous teams in the conference, and they have proven it by going to back-to-back Western Conference Finals. Their 2024 WCF run included knocking out the defending champion Nuggets in the second round.

Sure, neither matchup is a cakewalk for this Nuggets team, but there is a clear choice of who they should be more afraid of in the playoffs.


This article first appeared on Denver Nuggets on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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