OKC Thunder: Is Lofty Over-Under Warranted?

Having cruised to the NBA title with a combination of team defense and stellar scoring from league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Oklahoma City Thunder are an obviously dominant team.

Their style is now proven to be conducive to winning in the postseason, but it’s long been proven in the regular season. Even prior to ascending to another plane last season with 68 regular wins, OKC was able to nab the No. 1 seed the year prior with 57 victories in a similarly tough conference.

Moving forward, the champion’s over-under has been set at 62.5 by DraftKings Sportsbook, a fairly lofty number relative to most teams, and by far the highest among the league right now. Is picking OKC to again dominate the Western Conference warranted?

Numerous questions need answered before truly diving into that. 

Firstly, is Oklahoma City capable of getting better, or in the least maintaining their talent level? A resounding yes is needed here.

The Thunder will, scarily for the rest of the league, be capable of internal development nearly roster-wide. Jalen Williams could still improve, as showcased by SGA’s meteoric rise. And more simply just needs his wrist to heal. Chet Holmgren stands to gain the most from a healthy offseason, and Cason Wallace is close behind with what’s likely a higher offensive ceiling than anticipated.

Even players like Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso, who are done developing, stand to get better from a team perspective with continuity and added chemistry.

Secondly, just how good is the Western Conference set to be? The needle moves slightly less in OKC’s favor here, as the Nuggets and Rockets cemented themselves as true contenders with various offseason moves, and the middle of the conference is set to offer a gauntlet of competitive teams. 

Lastly, will OKC’s title run hamper its health in the upcoming season? The Thunder played deeper into the postseason than any team save for Indiana, who dealt with injuries of their own in the Finals. The offseason isn’t drastically shorter for the Thunder, but it’s not out of the question less overall rest comes into play early in the 2025-26 season.

Ultimately, the Thunder's over-under per DraftKings feels solid. The team will undoubtedly still offer the league a contender, if not another all-time product. But an improved Western Conference, shortened offseason and getting each team's best shot on a nightly basis could lead to a slightly less sparkling overall record than last season.

* Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
* If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.