OKC Thunder Strength of Schedule Stat Misleading

As the NBA schedule was announced this month, it is easy to point to the strength of schedule numbers as a comparison tool for what is ahead during this regular season. However, the formula can be a tad midleading when it comes to predicting a team's fate.

The Oklahoma City Thunder check in at No. 22 on the list. While it is like splitting hairs to determine who has a more difficult schedule in a league with such balanced rules, minor details can influence the 82-game regular season with a set structure.

One of those details is that the Thunder can't play themselves. So when factoring in the strength of the opponent, the best team is off the board while everyone else plays Oklahoma City 2-4 times per year.

That docks Oklahoma City down the list but interesting enough still not low enough to be bottom five in the league. Both Houston and Denver - the two biggest threats to OKC in the West - feature an easier schedule than the Thunder.

NBA Strength of Schedule

1. New Orleans Pelicans (0.517)
2. Phoenix Suns (0.514)
3. Portland Trail Blazers (0.514)
4. Dallas Mavericks (0.509)
5. Golden State Warriors (0.509)
6. Memphis Grizzlies (0.508)
7. San Antonio Spurs (0.508)
8. Brooklyn Nets (0.506)
9. Sacramento Kings (0.506)
10. Washington Wizards (0.504)
11. Chicago Bulls (0.503)
12. Charlotte Hornets (0.502)
13. Los Angeles Lakers (0.501)
14. Miami Heat (0.501)
15. Boston Celtics (0.499)
16. Minnesota Timberwolves (0.499)
17. L.A. Clippers (0.498)
18. Indiana Pacers (0.496)
19. Philadelphia 76ers (0.495)
20. Toronto Raptors (0.495)
21. Utah Jazz (0.495)
22. Oklahoma City Thunder (0.494)
23. Detroit Pistons (0.492)
24. Houston Rockets (0.492)
25. Orlando Magic (0.491)
26. Milwaukee Bucks (0.490)
27. Atlanta Hawks (0.487)
28. Cleveland Cavaliers (0.487)
29. New York Knicks (0.486)
30. Denver Nuggets (0.479)

Here is how the website calculates the strength of schedule for each team, providing a deep dive into many varibles that come into play, variablesvariables unlike other strength of schedule calculators around the NBA ecosystem.

Positive Residuals definition of strength of schedule

• Home team strength;
• Away team strength;
• Whether the home team is rested;
• Whether the away team is rested; and
• Altitude at which the home team plays.

"An estimate of how difficult a game or a slate of games is. At its core, SOS measures an opponent's win probability against average league competition, given a set of scheduling conditions. When multiple contests are involved, it takes the average of all the games. Higher numbers signal tougher tests. Conventionally, SOS reflects opponent quality, which is often defined by win percentage, net rating, or points above or below average. But, beyond team strength, other factors can also influence the likelihood of victory. Since this app focuses on regular-season calendars, it makes sense to incorporate schedule-related variables and have a broader definition of SOS," Per the Positive Residuals website glossary.

Denver seems to get the edge from the altitude advantage which balances out the fact they lead the league in back-to-backs and have some brutal stretches where they lack rest. Just as one example of Dallas being so high, two of their three tilts with Oklahoma City come in the American Airlines Center.

While this doesn't mean as much in basketball as the NFL, where you can see a dramatic difference in teams playing a first place vs. last place schedule, it is still interesting to follow.