One Knicks Trade Raising Major Red Flags

Back-to-back games. Back-to-back zeroes for Jose Alvarado. Those back-to-back games, just seven and eight minutes, 0-for-6 from the field, had New York Knicks fans asking uncomfortable questions about a key deadline acquisition. Against Jazz, he offered a partial answer.

But, for a player brought in to ignite the Knicks bench at the trade deadline, one good night only goes so far. And right now, the Knicks have a problem.

​‍​‌‍​‍‌​‍​‌‍Alvarado was traded to New York from New Orleans for Dalen Terry, two second-round picks. The initial signs were highly promising. Over his first eight games in the Knicks jersey, he managed to score almost 8 points per game at 40% shooting. The pinnacle of this performance was a spectacular 26 points, with 8 three-pointers against Philadelphia. It seemed as if New York had landed an incredible trade at the ​‍​‌‍​‍‌​‍​‌‍​‍‌deadline.

On​‍​‌‍​‍‌​‍​‌‍​‍‌ the flip side, excluding that Philadelphia game from the dataset, the result would be complete turnaround. Looking at Alvarado over the last seven games, he is averaging just 2.3 points, shooting 23.8%, and has not made a single three-pointer (0-for-11).

At the same time, his playing time has been reduced sharply in line with his performance: from 20-25 minutes in his first two weeks to 11, then 7, then 8 in the most recent losses. It is a fact that Mike Brown rarely cuts players from the rotation without having a reason, and thus the shrinking clock is a very strong indicator of a gradually falling trust of Alvarado by the offensive side of the ​‍​‌‍​‍‌​‍​‌‍​‍‌game.

The Defensive Case Can Only Carry Alvarado So Far in the Playoffs

One​‍​‌‍​‍‌​‍​‌‍​‍‌ version of the story is that the Knicks are fine. Alvarado was definitely never meant to be a scorer; he was hired to be a defensive disruptor, a backup ball-handler behind Jalen Brunson after Miles McBride's injury, a player who makes opposing guards' games very difficult. His career-long reputation as a pesky defender, with at least one steal per game in every season, remains intact.

But in a seven-game playoff series, the bench math changes. A guard who occupies 7-8 minutes and scores zero is a matchup the opponent will happily exploit. Teams will simply stop guarding him off the ball, collapse the defense on Brunson, and dare Alvarado to beat them, which, right now, he cannot.​