Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Game 5 odds and best bet

The series definitely turned with the change of venue. In the "City of Brotherly Love," the 76ers got their superstar back on the court and won both games to even up the series heading back to South Beach. 

Now the question is whether they can carry that momentum on the road. James Harden definitely was a more effective player with Joel Embiid back on the floor. I think we expected that, but there was some vintage Harden in the last couple of games. 

Speaking of coming back from injury, Kyle Lowry was back on the floor for Games 3 and 4. Unfortunately, the veteran guard did not give them much, and I am not sure how much of a boost you can expect from him in Miami given he is in his first year with the Heat.

Miami wing Jimmy Butler has been the best player on the floor for much of the series. He scored 40 points the other night in a loss. He played better in Philly than in Miami so far this series. Perhaps he had some extra motivation. 

Game Info

Philadelphia 76ers (2-2) vs. Miami Heat (2-2)
Tuesday, May 10, 2022
7:30 p.m. ET
FTX Arena, Miami, Fla.
TNT

Betting Odds

Spread: 76ers +3 (-110), Heat -3 (-110)
Total: 209.5
Moneyline: 76ers +130, Heat -155

Best Bet

Miami -3

If you are looking for the true impact of Embiid, all you have to do is look at this line. Miami was -8 and -7.5 in the first two games and now they are -3 returning home (with Lowry back).

Of course, his presence makes a difference but he is not playing at his peak level. At the very least, he is unlocking Harden more than we saw in the first two games in Miami. 

With the series shifting back to Miami, things should get a little tighter for the top players for Philadelphia. Miami wants to be physical at both ends and that is a style that is easier to execute on your home floor. 

As much as Embiid is often the biggest player on the floor, he goes through stretches where he prefers to play like a wing and Miami is going to indulge him that while also making sure he is "feeling it" in the paint when he ventures inside. He tends to front-run and wants things to be easy (and I don't think they will be the case Tuesday night).

This series has been interesting as it has gone back and forth between very low-scoring games to more moderate ones and back again. 

That means we should be in for a slugfest on Tuesday night in South Beach. It's a game that likely favors the home side, with Butler one of the most physical wing players in the league and Bam Adebayo a player who wants to be both physical and can use his superior athleticism as well. 

The key for Miami is getting at least one of their shooters back on track. Duncan Robinson has become a meme with his DNPs, while guys like Max Strus, Lowry and recently christened Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro are not producing from behind the arc the way they did during the season. 

As long as Miami has one shooter rise to the occasion, they should be able to win and cover at home to retake control of the series. It might not be pretty, but Miami gets the result and is a nice value at this number.