Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 4 odds and best bet

The Mavericks won Game 3 at home, so we just might have a series after all. In the win, Luka Doncic was just 1 assist away from a triple-double and with Jalen Brunson leading the team with 28 points they were able to get him some help.

By tipoff for Game 3, the Mavs were small home favorites, but despite the win, they are starting this game as a small underdog. So much for zig-zag theory. 

What the markets are saying is that they don't really see the performance as repeatable, or they want you to be lured in by a rare home underdog in the playoffs. Probably a bit of both. 

Phoenix did not play a bad game in Game 3 with all five starters scoring in double figures, but nobody really popped. Now the question is whether the Suns are really in trouble or did they just have a game where they were "playing with their food"?

Game info

Phoenix Suns (2-1) vs. Dallas Mavericks (1-2)
Sunday, May 8, 2022
3:30 p.m. ET
American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
ESPN

Betting odds

Spread: Suns -1.5 (-110), Mavericks +1.5 (-110)
Total: 215
Moneyline: Suns -120, Mavericks +100

Best bet

Phoenix -1.5

Series sweeps are boring, so I am glad Dallas got the win and showed some mettle. Plus, more Doncic is definitely a good thing. 

In Game 3, the Suns never got quite into it. They were down nine at the end of the first quarter and were chasing all game long just to make it respectable. 

The Suns' big problem was turnovers. They had 17 as a team, compared to just eight for the Mavs. Within those 17, "point god" Chris Paul had seven, while backcourt mate Devin Booker had five. That is a lot of lost possessions.

Those seven turnovers were more than twice what Paul has had in any playoff game so far this postseason, so I feel very confident that he returns to being the savvy, effective floor general we have seen throughout the playoffs. Paul is the ultimate veteran and always responds. The Suns have the depth that they do not need the best version of Paul every game, just not the worst. 

With Paul playing more like himself, we are also unlikely to see wing Mikal Bridges lead the team in shot attempts. That is definitely not his game even though many teams take the approach of daring him to beat them.

Kudos to the Mavs for knocking the Suns off their game with the series switching venues, but I am not confident they can do it again, at least not the way they did it in Game 3. To get another home with they are going to likely need more from Doncic and for the supporting cast to continue to be a factor. 

Phoenix is a small favorite, so almost any win will cover. Similar to Game 3 that is too much value to ignore. 

Look for the Suns to create an elimination situation in Game 5.