Predicting Tari Eason's Next Contract with the Rockets

Tari Eason's tenure with the Houston Rockets may have already ended. Eason and the franchise were unable to strike a deal last summer, as Houston wanted an injury guarantee, whereas Eason likely wanted a fully guaranteed deal, which is the norm.

The Rockets had reason to be worried about Eason's availability, or lack thereof, as it's been a recurring issue throughout his brief career. Eason has played a minimum of 65 games just once, which was his rookie season, three years ago. 

Even this past season, Eason played 60 games, missing chunks of the season, due to injury. Which is unfortunate, because he's impactful when healthy. 

Houston's brass wants to retain Eason. Rockets General Manager Rafael Stone said as much in his exit presser. But Eason is a restricted free agent. 

Any team could make a run at him. If he lands an offer, the Rockets will have to decide whether to match the offer.

But a team won't want to tie up their salary and risk missing out on other free agent options if they think Houston will match it. So they'd be inclined to offer Eason more than what Houston will want to pay, in order to increase their chances of signing him.

And he does have a market. The Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers both tried acquiring Eason at the trade deadline. The Los Angeles Lakers also are expected to show interest in Eason this offseason. 

So what would a deal look like?

Let's first note that the Sixers won't have cap room this summer. Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey combine for $153 million alone. The Sixers are above the cap.

The Lakers will have money to spend. And the Bulls will have the most cap space in the league and present a real threat to Houston. 

In fact, I'd say Chicago is Houston's biggest threat, on that front.

Okay, now let's get back to the numbers. I'd personally expect Eason to fetch somewhere in the ball park of $20-23 million annually. 

Which is consistent with what the Rockets offered him prior to the start of the season, albeit on a partial guarantee. 

They'll likely have to give him a fully guaranteed deal, because some other team will certainly give him that (likely the Bulls, considering how aggressive they were after him just three short months ago). 

$80 million over four years would get the deal done. And that would be a victory for Eason, because it's more guaranteed money than Houston was offering back in October.

And it's hard to see another team offering much more than that, outside of Houston, also. Because of said injury concerns.

We'll find out soon enough.