Predicting Warriors' Remaining Free-Agent Moves, LeBron's Decision

The Golden State Warriors have 10 players under standard contracts, which means they will have to fill four more roster spots for the 2026-27 season.

They have two major questions at the moment. Will they win the LeBron James sweepstakes, and will they match the Grizzlies' offer sheet for restricted free agent Quinten Post?

We'll answer those questions and predict how the Warriors will use their roster spots.

Warriors Will Lose the LeBron Sweepstakes

The Cavaliers are currently considered the front-runner for James' signature, but I'm still not sold that they will land him.

What I am sold on is James not having the Warriors near the top of his list.

The longer he waits to decide, the more I think money is not a serious criterion for James. If he wanted the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception, he could have gotten it from a contender like the Spurs, but now the contenders who had the easiest access to it have used it.

So if the fact that Warriors can offer James more money is meaningless, then their only advantage is the Bay Area's proximity to Los Angeles.

But that doesn't feel as important as a) the acquiring team's roster quality, b) how the move will be perceived and c) the quality of the story if James wins with the acquiring team.

The Warriors' roster quality isn't great, more will hate it if he goes to the Bay than if he goes elsewhere, and though winning with any team would be special, it would be more special to win with some of the other contenders for him.

I'll say the Cavs land him, but I don't think he's made up his mind yet, which means the Nuggets, 76ers and Timberwolves have a better shot than people think.

Warriors Will Not Match Offer Sheet for Post

Post signed a three-year, $30 million offer sheet on Monday, and the Warriors have until 11:59 p.m. ET on Tuesday to match it.

Considering Post is 26 years old, has great three-point form and passable defense, the contract offer is reasonable (though a bit higher than expected).

But the optics of matching it are not great.

For one, the Warriors would essentially be ending their ability to offer James more than a veteran minimum contract. Considering most of the contenders are seemingly trying to get him on a veteran minimum contract, maybe that's not a big deal, but then why didn't they offer more for Anfernee Simons?

Second, Post would be the team's third-string center. If they are going to sign a free agent for more than the veteran minimum, they should target a wing with defensive chops or a playmaking guard.

Third, if they get Post back at this rate, they are essentially locked into the same roster as last season. No matter what it will be a tough sell if they don't land James, but Post's return would give them basically no way to argue they are changing anything.

Warriors Go Just Above the Minimum to Sign Ziaire Williams

The Warriors don't have a target worth anything close to the $15 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception (aside from LeBron), but they could offer a free agent a one-year deal worth $4 million to $4.5 million by using a small part of the MLE.

Despite being just 24 years old, Williams might be receiving only minimum contract offers. Getting about $1.5 million more than what his minimum would be could be enough to land him.

He's developed into a plus defender, and the Warriors need more of that on the wings.

Warriors Will Re-Sign Draymond, GPII

Gary Payton II will sign another one-year, veteran minimum deal. Though the Warriors want to get younger, Payton is too valuable at that price to be let go.

The Warriors will give Green as much as they can while staying below the $209 million first apron. A two-year, $34 million deal with a player option in the second season would work.

Warriors Will Give 14th Roster Spot to Cryer

LJ Cryer is on a two-way contract, and the Warriors could keep him there until he uses up his NBA roster eligibility and then convert him to a standard contract.

That's what they did last year with Pat Spencer.

But if they get right up against the first apron with Green's contract, it'll be difficult for them to convert anyone to a standard contract during the season. They might have to salary-dump a player just to do so, which isn't always as easy as it was when they traded Trayce Jackson-Davis to the Raptors.

The Warriors can avoid all of that and give Cryer a standard contract.

Warriors Give Two-Way Contracts to Ike, Leons and Jones

The Warriors need a third-string center, and they wouldn't have one under a standard contract if my free-agency predictions prove correct. So they would have to have one on a two-way contract.

Graham Ike gets the nod. He doesn't have a perimeter shot, but he has the power and finesse to finish from lots of positions in the paint.

Malevy Leons is already under a two-way contract for this season. His spot isn't set in stone, but it feels likely that he'll be back.

Laje Jones, the 54th pick of the draft, gets the last spot as a developmental wing project.