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Projecting what rookie Brandon Miller can become for Hornets
Brandon Miller Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

Projecting what rookie Brandon Miller can become for Hornets

Before the 2023 NBA Draft, some believed the Charlotte Hornets should have selected Scoot Henderson with the No. 2 pick instead of Brandon Miller, the Alabama one-and-done. Instead, Portland snapped up Henderson — the former NBA G League star — with the very next pick.

That discourse has caused Miller's game to take a backseat to discussions about fit, draft strategy and the "correct" way to build a team.   

So, narratives aside, what does Miller actually bring to Charlotte? And does his skillset match that of a No. 2 overall pick or did Charlotte reach for the idea of Brandon Miller rather than the real Brandon Miller?

Shot creation

Miller played on an Alabama team that ranked 22nd in assists per game. Hence, the ball didn't often get "stuck," allowing Miller to get good looks at the basket. But when he created for himself or others — one of the more important traits of high-level NBA scorers — he showed promise.

If you squint hard enough, there are shades of three-time NBA All-Star Khris Middleton in Miller's game. If you squint a little harder, there's some Paul George there, which seems to be the ultimate ceiling for Miller. (If you squint really hard, you might also see Josh Jackson, the fourth overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft who flamed out in the league.)

George, the Los Angeles Clippers star, has long been one of the NBA's premier self-creators. His mix of size (6-foot-8), ball-handling and shot-making ability have kept him in the "borderline superstar" tier of NBA players for the better part of a decade. Miller flashes some of those same traits; he has above-average handling ability for a 6-foot-9 forward, which he showed off in Charlotte's first preseason game.

Compare that clip of Miller to this move from George in Los Angeles's first preseason game, and it immediately becomes clear that Miller was being honest when he said he studies George's game and tries to replicate it by "stealing his moves, just putting my own spin on them."

Body control

An underrated part of "creation" in the NBA is body control; speed is rendered less useful if a player isn't intentional with his action. Miller has given the Hornets reason to be excited in that regard, showing intentionality in his movement, which is extremely smooth for a 6-foot-9 player. Centers — and even many bigger power forwards — are going to have a brutal time keeping up with Miller around the perimeter and on drives, which is evidenced below in a Summer League YouTube clip at the 48-second mark.

Miller navigates a screen but doesn't immediately drive. He swerves out to the three-point line, knowing he already has a step on Jabari Walker. The mere threat of his outside shooting causes Walker to bite on what he believes will be a shot attempt, allowing Miller to drive past him. Miller then hesitates just enough again to draw the foul before converting.

Miller's finishing at Alabama wasn't particularly good. However, if there's reason to be optimistic about his game at the rim, it's the control he displays on drives (above) and his ability to stay controlled in the air as well. Below, in another YouTube clip (26-second mark), he attacks the basket in almost a crouched position, explodes vertically, takes a hit and still finishes a dunk.

High-level scoring  

And, of course, Miller gets buckets. At Alabama, Miller was the SEC's leading scorer (18.8 PPG) as well as the conference's leading three-point maker (106 made threes), second-best three-point shooter (38.4%) and second-best free throw shooter (85.9%).

That entire repertoire was on display against South Carolina, when he scored a college career-high 41 points. Miller went 14-for-25 from the field, 6-for-13 from three and 7-for-8 from the free-throw line. 

Reach?

The Charlotte Hornets reached for Miller — he wasn't the best prospect available when the team drafted. And, yes, Charlotte drafted him based on the player the front office thinks he can become — which is something akin to George — rather than the player he currently is, which is certainly not George.

With that being said, the player he can become is still very good. There is reason to believe Miller's finishing will improve at the NBA level and that playing alongside a passing savant in LaMelo Ball will allow him more room to operate and grow into himself.

Don't expect Miller to replicate the season of Orlando's Paolo Banchero, who averaged 20 points and 6.9 rebounds as a rookie in 2022-23. It's more realistic for Miller to average 13 points, four rebounds and two assists and post a 53% true shooting percentage.

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