Raptors Clinch Lucky No. 7 Thanks to Shocking Spurs Upset

The odds are set.

The Toronto Raptors are officially locked into the seventh spot in the NBA Draft Lottery, thanks to a buzzer-beating three-pointer from Harrison Barnes that lifted the San Antonio Spurs over the Golden State Warriors late Wednesday night. That shot rendered Toronto’s final two games of the season meaningless.

It’s a familiar position for the Raptors.

In 2021, they jumped from the seventh spot to No. 4 in the lottery, cashing in on their 8.5% odds to select Scottie Barnes.

Historically, the seventh slot has been unusually lucky. The New Orleans Pelicans jumped to No. 1 in 2019 and selected Zion Williamson. In 2020, the Chicago Bulls moved up to No. 4 and took Patrick Williams. In 2022, the Sacramento Kings made the same leap from No. 7 to No. 4 and selected Keegan Murray, just one year after the Raptors did the same with Barnes.

So what does it mean this time?

Nothing really.

Toronto enters the lottery with a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and presumptive top prospect Cooper Flagg. The odds are 7.8% at No. 2, 8.1% at No. 3, and 8.5% at No. 4. Altogether, the Raptors have a 31.9% chance of landing a top-four pick.

Toronto cannot land at No. 5 or No. 6. There is a 19.7% chance they hold their spot at No. 7, giving them roughly a coin flip’s chance of picking seventh or better.

The most likely outcome is a small slide to No. 8. The Raptors have a 34.1% chance of falling one spot. There is a 12.9% chance they fall to No. 9 and a 1.3% chance they drop to No. 10. In the absolute worst-case scenario, they fall all the way to No. 11, though that outcome has just a 0.03% chance of happening.

All that’s left to do now is hope.

Toronto has turned it over to the basketball gods. At some point in the coming weeks, the team will decide who will represent them at the draft lottery. On May 12, the ping pong balls will start tumbling, and someone’s fortunes will change.

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