The deadline for rookies entering the final season of their contracts to sign an extension is October 20 at 6 p.m. ET. Most notably, the Atlanta Hawks are hoping to strike a deal with Dyson Daniels, who would otherwise head to restricted free agency next summer if no agreement is reached.
Restricted free agency in today’s NBA can be brutal, often leaving players with limited leverage. However, Daniels could be an exception. Fresh off winning the league’s Most Improved Player award — and nearly capturing Defensive Player of the Year — the young guard has become one of the Hawks’ cornerstones.
Daniels established himself as the best perimeter defender in basketball last season, while also making huge strides offensively. After joining the Hawks, he posted career-highs across the board, averaging over 14 points per game on nearly 50% shooting, along with six rebounds, 4.4 assists, and a league-leading three steals per game. His jump shot showed major improvement, and his playmaking gives Atlanta a legitimate secondary ball handler when Trae Young is off the floor.
Even if the Hawks don’t extend him before the deadline, there will be a strong market for Daniels in restricted free agency. NBA insider Jake Fischer recently projected that Daniels could command a deal around $30 million annually, comparable to his teammate Jalen Johnson’s extension.
“Perhaps Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels or Detroit’s Jalen Duren can defy the skeptics and land a deal in the $30 million-a-season stratosphere like we saw last October for Orlando’s Jalen Suggs and Atlanta’s Jalen Johnson. I think both Daniels and Duren, as restricted free agents, could quite easily command offer sheets at that $30 million-per-season level if we see at least three teams with the cap space to make such offers in the 2026 offseason. As we speak, though, I’m just not sure how much more October extension action we’ll see to add to Jović’s score.”
Fisher also notes that there seems to be quite a considerable gap between Daniels and the Hawks as things stand now in negations.
“I’m hearing there’s indeed some distance between Daniels and the Hawks in the early stages of these negotiations,” Fischer continued.
“The Hawks, on one hand, could certainly take the stance that they have yet to see how effective Daniels can be in a playoff environment given his past shooting inconsistencies.
“Yet it’s likewise true that Daniels is the NBA’s reigning Most Improved Player, who also made a run at Defensive Player of the Year last season. He would thus figure to be a restricted free agent in demand next summer — if it got that far — even if RFAs in 2026 are confronted by another suffocating marketplace.”
The Hawks have the advantage of restricted free agency, meaning they can match any offer Daniels receives next offseason. Atlanta may choose to wait and see if Daniels can replicate or even build upon his breakout campaign before committing long-term. But there’s risk in that strategy — if Daniels takes another leap this season, $30 million per year might not be enough to keep him in Atlanta.
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