Round Table: OKC Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Conference Finals Predictions

The Oklahoma City Thunder are taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals.

This marks the Thunder's first trip to the Western Conference Finals since 2016, while the Timberwolves are repeat customers after falling to the Dallas Mavericks in this setting a year ago.

Four wins stand in the way of either team reaching the NBA Finals, and the Thunder on SI team has predicted how this series will unfold and who or what will be the biggest X Factor in this series.

Western Conference Finals Round Table Predictions

Rylan Stiles, Lead Writer

Prediction: Thunder in 7

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves are evenly matched and this series is set to go the distance. Minnesota has a path to winning this thing in six games if they can steal the pivotal Game 5 of a series this scribe expects to be 2-2 heading into that game. If the Thunder can grab hold of Game 5, as expected at home, then they have two shots to eliminate Minnesota, which is great odds for a Thunder team that has been primed for bouncing back from losses and still hasn't lost consecutive games this postseason.

X Factor: 3-point shot making.

Something has to give. These are two teams down on their luck from beyond the arc so far this postseason, as they sit at the bottom of the four teams left from distance. That isn't due to a shortage of good opportunities; these capable but streaky 3-point shooting squads are due to break out of this slump at some point. Who rips the cords early and often from beyond the arc in this series? That will likely tell the tale of the best-of-7 set.

Ivan White, Staff Writer

Prediction: Thunder in 6

The Thunder haven’t necessarily played their best basketball this postseason, but they might have turned a corner in the second round.

Even if Oklahoma City can reach its regular-season form, Minnesota has played the best playoff basketball of anyone in the West thus far. Although the Thunder should have enough to win, this should be a long and tough series.

X Factor: The co-stars

While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards will be engaged in a superstar battle, the series could come down to their sidekicks.

Jalen Williams and Julius Randle have each had big playoff moments and disappointments, so whoever can give their team a more reliable punch could be the difference between a Finals appearance and going home.

Ethan Baca, Staff Writer

Prediction: Thunder in 6

The Thunder won 19 more regular-season games and finished with a +7.7 higher net rating than Minnesota. It possesses the superior No. 1 option, home-court advantage and more room for error overall. The Timberwolves have demonstrated consistent outside shooting, reaching 36% or better on 3-pointers in seven of 10 playoff games. Meanwhile, the Thunder has shot below 36% on 3-pointers in nine of 11 playoff games. This is an area Minnesota must keep shining in to make the series competitive.

However, Oklahoma City has dominated the possession battle all season long. It forced 19.3 turnovers per game against the Memphis Grizzlies during the first round and 17.7 turnovers per game against the Denver Nuggets throughout the second round. On the other side of the ball, the Thunder has only averaged 10.9 turnovers thanks to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams’ incredible ball security. The Timberwolves have averaged 14.8 turnovers against less disruptive defenses, so I think this category will make the definitive difference for the Thunder.

X-Factor: Jalen Williams

Williams struggled massively against the Nuggets, shooting 14-for-31 (45.2%) at the rim and 6-for-30 (20.0%) on above-the-break triples. He must be more assertive and efficient in half-court offense, whether as a ball-handler or off-ball player, to maximize the Thunder’s winning chances. The Timberwolves will provide him a clear challenge with tons of positional size and Rudy Gobert waiting down low.

In the regular season, Williams guarded Naz Reid for 23 minutes, 54 seconds – over six minutes more than any other player. Reid scored 22 points on 9-for-19 shooting, recorded more turnovers than assists, and Minnesota scored 113 points on 113.1 partial possessions during the matchup. Williams is also likely to guard Julius Randle, who missed three of four games against Oklahoma City. Randle has averaged 23.9 points on 50.9% shooting, 5.9 rebounds (1.6 offensive) and 5.9 assists through 10 playoff games. The Thunder All-Star’s two-way play will dictate how the series plays out.

Michael Stamps, Staff Writer

Prediction: Thunder in 7

Simply put, Oklahoma City no longer has to worry about stopping Nikola Jokic. Defending Anthony Edwards isn't any less of a challenge than defending Jokic, but OKC has the depth to do so. Offensively, Jalen Williams finally found his footing in Game 7 against Denver, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander doing what he does best. If those two continue to operate at a high level, it'll be hard to stop them. Edwards and the Timberwolves won't go down without a fight though and this should be another close series.

X-factor: Whoever's guarding Anthony Edwards

The Thunder will be favored and have positional matchups across the board. But, if there's one player in the NBA that can stop a team's momentum, regardless of who it is, it's Edwards. He can hit shots from anywhere and has been exceptional so far, but the Thunder have the defensive fire power to slow him down. We saw what Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace did to Jokic and the Nuggets in Game 7 and that same intensity needs to translate to stopping Edwards throughout the coming series.

Chase Gemes, Staff Writer

Prediction: Thunder in 7

It took seven games for Oklahoma City to get past Denver, so it’d be expected that a more threatening Minnesota team should take it just as far. The Timberwolves have a lot of momentum after wins against the Lakers and Warriors, so the Thunder’s co-stars in Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams will need to step up now more than ever. Its depth could still give it the edge in this series, especially with Caruso handling the Edwards assignment at times.

X-factor: Chet Holmgren

There’s a variety of players that could be picked here, but Holmgren sticking up to Randle, Gobert and Reid will be crucial for Oklahoma City in protecting the glass. Holmgren’s also going to need to provide some volume offense as one of the Thunder’s top options, so he has a lot of responsibility placed on him.

This series will take place every other day beginning on Tuesday, May 20 inside the Paycom Center. Stay tuned to Thunder on SI for complete coverage of the Western Conference Finals.