With just six games left in the season, the Sacramento Kings are in free fall with seven losses in their last eight games. A few weeks ago there were hopes and talks of the Kings climbing to the sixth seed, but as the offseason looms, the focus in Sacramento has once again shifted back to lottery odds and ping-pong balls, especially after an embarrassing loss to the Washington Wizards.
While Kevin Huerter is no longer on the Kings, the pick that the Sacramento used to bring him in in 2022 has yet to be conveyed. If the pick falls in the first 12 selections of this years draft, the Kings will keep the pick. But if it is 13th or higher, it will go to the Atlanta Hawks.
As of the morning of April 3rd, the Kings' odds of keeping their pick are slim. According to Tankathon, Sacramento currently has a 4.7% chance of jumping into the top four and keeping its pick. The highest odds are that the Kings stay at the 13th pick, with a 92.9% chance of that being the case.
With a handful of games left, the Kings can still move around in the season's final standings. It seems unlikely that they will catch the Dallas Mavericks, but there are two teams behind Sacramento who can bump the Kings into the 12th position for lottery odds.
The Phoenix Suns, Sacramento's direct competition for the final play-in spot, seems like the unlikely candidate to pass them with their schedule, but is always a possibility.
The more likely path for the Kings to drop in the standings is the Miami Heat passing them. The Heat have found their groove with six straight wins, including a 21-point victory over the Boston Celtics.
The Miami Heat had lost 10 games in a row, then turned around and have now won six in a row.
— Inside Hoops | The NBA (@InsideHoops) April 3, 2025
If either the Heat or Suns pass the Kings, Sacramento's odds of keeping their pick takes a massive jump from 4.7% to 93.3%.
There are benefits to either scenario, as the Kings having their pick this offseason would allow them to draft another young player or use the pick in a potential trade. But they would then owe Atlanta their pick next year with a top-10 protection.
If the pick conveys to the Hawks this offseason, the Kings obviously wouldn't get their pick but would fulfill the Huerter trade and open up more future picks to be traded.
The Kings came into this season with high expectations, with the hope that bringing in DeMar DeRozan would be the move to take them to the next level. But instead, like so many years during the 16-year playoff drought, we are looking at lottery odds over the final stretch of the season.
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