Salary-cap projection is ticking time bomb for some NBA teams

The news comes at an inconvenient time this season, since teams were already making trades and free agent signings, many that extend into the 2026-27 season. The Minnesota Timberwolves signed Julius Randle and Naz Reid to long-term deals that pay them around $33.3M and $23.3M annually, respectively. That combined with the salaries for Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels means the Wolves will be paying around $169M for five players in 2026-27 — not considering Donte DiVincenzo's 12.5M.

That's difficult now that the projected salary cap is $165M for that season, with the second apron at $222M. That's $6M less than it might be with a 10 percent raise — not a huge difference, but crucial for teams calculating their payrolls to the dollar.

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement has many provisions that can trigger a hard cap at the first or second tax apron — using the mid-level exception, making a sign-and-trade, taking back more salary in a trade than you send out. Now those aprons will be just enough lower that it can screw up a team's plans — especially teams with long-term deals on the books.

The smaller increase in the cap will also cost players who sign rookie extensions this summer that will kick in for the 2026-27 season. A standard rookie extension is worth 25 percent of the cap for the year it starts. For a player like Paolo Banchero of the Orlando Magic or the Oklahoma City Thunder's Jalen Williams, the smaller cap increase means a contract that could have started at $42.5M will now start at $41.25M, with the five percent annual raises being that much smaller.

It's possible that the cap projection could change when more revenue comes in. But there's clearly a number of front offices who are sweating the unexpected limits coming a year from now.