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Dec 30, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Charlotte Hornets center Mark Williams (5) drives in past Chicago Bulls center Nikola Vucevic (9) during the second half at the Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-Imagn Images Sam Sharpe-Imagn Images

Spread & over/under predictions: Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls

Originally posted on Charlotte Hornets on SI
By Ian Black | Last updated Jan 17, 2025 12:16 PM ET

The Charlotte Hornets (9-28) conclude their road trip on Friday, this time heading to Chicago to take on the Bulls (18-23). The Bulls pulled out the wins in both December matchups, which means the Hornets will need to win both tonight and in their final matchup in April to even up the season series.

The Hornets are coming into the matchup having won two of their last three games, which is the smallest amount of games between wins since the team’s back-to-back wins against the Pistons and Pacers all the way back from November 6th-8th.

Center Mark Williams has been on fire as of late, most recently putting together a career-high 31 points to go along with 13 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and a block in the team’s win against the Jazz.

The roster will look a bit different for the Hornets tonight following the trade that saw center Nick Richards sent to Phoenix in exchang e for forward Josh Okogie. Richards' departure will open up minutes for Moussa Diabaté and his dependable work on the boards.

Tonight will be the final game of four straight at home for the Bulls. After losing the first three games to the Kings, Pelicans, and Hawks, this will be Chicago’s last chance to avoid the winless homestand.

With LaMelo Ball having missed the first two meetings of the season between the squads, it has now been 1,145 days since the Ball brothers have faced each other head-to-head. Whether or not that lengthy streak is broken tonight is still unclear, as Lonzo Ball is listed as questionable (knee) by the Bulls on the injury report.

Here are my picks for tonight's game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Star ratings (Strength of prediction):

1 Star - Not very confident
2 Star - A little confident
3 Star - Fairly confident
4 Star - Very confident
5 Star - Should be a lock to happen

Spread: Bulls -4.5

1-star play on the Hornets +4.5: If Brandon Miller and Mark Williams- both listed on the injury report for the matchup- suit up, Charlotte is in a nice spot to cover here.

One might think LaMelo Ball playing against Chicago for the first time this season would mean that the Hornets might have spacing available to them that could not be accessed in the prior matchups, which is true. Ball is tied with Steph Curry for the most three-pointers made per game this season in the NBA at 4.4.

The issue for the Hornets here is not that LaMelo Ball is a fantastic shooter from range, but rather that the Bulls are one of the most effective teams in the NBA at defending shots from range. Chicago might allow the fourth-most three-pointers per game in the league, but that is likely because their 33.9% opponents shooting on those attempts is the second-best mark in the league.

If the Hornets are to finally beat the Bulls this season, they will likely need a different plan of attack. Lucky for them, there is a clear weakness that the Hornets can exploit on the interior.

The Bulls might be amongst the best perimeter defenses in the league, but the interior is a completely different story. Not only do the Bulls allow the second-most shots to opponents within five feet of the rim in the NBA at 33.5 attempts per game, but their opponents convert 65.5% of those attempts which is the sixth-worst mark in the league.

The Hornets have in large part not been especially effective in terms of scoring points in the paint this season, but Mark Williams did go 9-9 shooting on his way to 20pts/12reb/3blk/2stl the last time these two teams met. He’s only getting better the further he gets from that lengthy injury absence and should have full ability to take advantage of Nikola Vucevic and the rest of the Bulls frontcourt.

The single star of confidence stems from the fact it is unclear as of writing whether or not Mark Williams, or Brandon Miller, will suit up tonight.

Over/Under: 235.5

4-star play on the under: This line feels exploitable at first glance. Neither of the first two matchups for these teams sniffed the total for this game, even with one of those games going to overtime.

Charlotte has the fourth-ranked defensive rating in the NBA over their last ten games, and Chicago's tenth overall ranking is not too far behind. Both teams also have bottom-10 offensive ratings over the same period of time.

Grant Williams and Tre Mann are of course out for the matchup for Charlotte, with key contributors Miller and Williams questionable. The Bulls will be without Torrey Craig and Adama Sonogo. Additionally, Lonzo Ball, Talen Horton-Tucker, Ayo Dosunmu, Josh Giddey, and Coby White are all questionable for the game with a variety of injuries. With so many potentially missing players on both sides, reaching the give line becomes even harder.

Both teams have also only seen the over hit twice in their last ten games, although both instances for the Hornets were the last two games played.

Overall, there are just too many factors that prefer the under to have confidence in anything other than the under here. There’s absolutely talent and room for the over here, but that range of outcome is significantly less likely.