Tank or not? Decisions facing NBA's middle class

UNDERACHIEVERS: Magic, Pistons, Spurs, Blazers

With veteran-heavy rosters, these four teams entered the season expecting to make the playoffs. However, for a variety of reasons, they are well below .500 and in danger of missing the postseason. Is it time to cut bait with their best players? Or should they double down and go for broke?

The Magic (15-19) should NOT TANK. Making the playoffs is important to this franchise, especially considering its decisions to re-sign Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross in the offseason. A panic trade of one of its best players would show a lack of organizational direction. The Magic has intriguing, young talent in Aaron Gordon, Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac and should put those players in the position to get playoff reps. Orlando shouldn’t necessarily trade first-round draft picks to be the No. 8 seed, but if it can acquire a cheap veteran and/or a reclamation project, as it did with Fultz last season, it should do so.

The Pistons (12-23) should TANK. Detroit should hold an open auction for Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. The Griffin-Drummond core has a defined ceiling: the No. 8 seed. The Pistons can probably get a decent asset or two for Griffin if they can deal him this season. If not, they risk him becoming a declining asset in most of the league’s eyes due to his age and injury history (see Kevin Love). And for as statistically dominate as Drummond can be (17.6 ppg. and 15.8 rpg), he isn’t as impactful on winning as those numbers would suggest given the way basketball is played today. Time to cut bait and jump-start the rebuild.

The Spurs (14-19) should TANK. Like the situation in Detroit, the DeMar DeRozan-LaMarcus Aldridge core isn’t taking San Antonio anywhere special. Both players could be the third-best player on a title contender, so the Spurs should give them that opportunity and pick up assets in return. Moving on from these veterans would give young players on the Spurs (Lonnie Walker IV, Dejounte Murray and Derrick White) more opportunities to shine. As tough as it may be for Coach Pop to rebuild, it's in the Spurs' best interest.

The Blazers (14-21) should NOT TANK. Tanking is simply not an option for a team with one of the best players in the league (Damian Lillard) on its roster. Plagued by the injury bug all season, the Blazers should get back Jusuf Nurkic at some point for a late postseason push. Portland already made the desperation signing of Carmelo Anthony, so why not deal Hassan Whiteside’s contract and a first-rounder for, say, the Thunder's Danilo Gallinari? Or two firsts for Detroit's Blake Griffin?

OVERACHIEVERS: Hornets, Thunder, Grizzlies

It’s damn near impossible to find anyone who predicted that any of these teams would make the playoffs when the season began. Yet, here we are 30-35 games into the season, and the young Hornets and Grizzlies are squarely in the mix for the eighth seed in their conferences and the Thunder is the seventh seed in the West. 

The Hornets (14-23) should TANK. They should have tanked last season. And the season before that. And probably the season before that too. However, Michael Jordan’s fascination with toiling in mediocrity has kept Charlotte from drafting near the top of the lottery (and thereby potentially obtaining franchise-altering talent) year after year. And while Devonte Graham & Co. are keeping the Hornets afloat in the Eastern Conference playoff race, that shouldn’t make them buyers at the deadline. This team should be aiming to finish with one of the worst records in the league so it can draft, say, James Wiseman.

The Thunder (19-15) should HALF-TANK. Huh?  Chris Paul isn’t getting traded this season, and he and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are good enough to keep the Thunder around a .500 record (which should get them into the playoffs). At the same time, the Thunder should absolutely consider trading interesting trade chips Danilo Gallinari, Dennis Schröder and Steven Adams -– all of whom could potentially yield a first-round pick in return. If the Thunder can make the playoffs to get their young players postseason reps while also obtaining future assets at the deadline, it’d be an amazing accomplishment by a team left for dead the night Paul George was traded to the Clippers.

The Grizzlies (13-22) should TANK. Memphis is not good, but it is an exciting, young team with a future Big Three in Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke. Making a push for the playoffs would likely come at the cost of hamstringing their future, so the Grizzlies should get whatever they can for Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder and any other veteran other contenders desire, and let their future Big Three take their bumps and bruises the rest of the season.

ENIGMAS: Bulls, Suns, Timberwolves, Kings, Pelicans

These five teams have the toughest decisions heading into the trade deadline. All of them have talented, young players who could greatly benefit from making the playoffs. Yet all of them are at least a star away from being competitive in the playoffs. All of them have shown flashes of competence this season, and each has looked inept at other times. A young franchise player (Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns, Phoenix's Devin Booker, etc.) could get wandering eyes if his team tanks. However, not tanking and sacrificing future assets could put a permanent first-round ceiling on these franchises for years to come.

The Bulls (13-23) should NOT TANK. Chicago should also trade Zach LaVine (23.4 ppg.). Wait, but he’s their best player, isn’t he?  Well, he’s definitely the Bulls' most talented player and the player they run their offense through (30.9 usage rate). On the other hand, he’s the worst defender in their rotation, a chucker on offense (18.7 FGA) and a below-average distributor (3.9 apg.) for someone with the ball in his hands so frequently. Trading LaVine to a team that desperately needs a bucket-getter (Sixers?) would yield the Bulls a nice return (probably a protected first-rounder and a young rotation player) and could have an addition-by-subtraction effect on the rest of Chicago’s roster (think of the Raptors trading Rudy Gay in 2013-14).

The Suns (13-21) should NOT TANK. Why would the Suns tank? I mean, they won the lottery in a draft that had a once-in-a-lifetime talent (Luka Doncic) and other future superstars (Trae Young, Jaren Jackson Jr.) and ended up with Deandre Ayton, a traditional big man in a sport where traditional big men are nearly extinct. Plus, I get the feeling their franchise player, Devin Booker, is about to get wandering eyes if the team keeps wasting years of his early prime.

The Timberwolves (13-21) should NOT TANK. Much like the Suns, the T’Wolves have an immensely talented franchise player in Towns (26.5 ppg., 11.7 rpg., 4.4 apg.) who already has teams (Warriors and Knicks) monitoring his situation. The team had no intention of tanking heading into this season and even got off to a hot start, so giving up on the season when they’re still within striking distance of the No. 8 seed would be a bad visual.

The Kings (13-22) should NOT TANK … for now. Things are starting to unravel a bit in Sacramento, with Buddy Hield questioning coaches’ trust in him and Dewayne Dedmon demanding a trade. However, tanking isn’t the option for this team because it is capped out and has young, talented players on its roster who would greatly benefit from playoff experience. The Kings should trade Dedmon, deal Bogdan Bogdanovic so that they don’t lose him for nothing this offseason, and let De’Aaron Fox do what he does best: fast break. (The Kings are the slowest team in the NBA. Last season they were fifth fastest.) 

The Pelicans (11-23) should WAIT until Zion Williamson returns to decide whether to tank or not. Williamson’s anticipated debut is reportedly going to come in January, which should give the Pelicans at least a couple of weeks to determine whether to consider offers for the likes of Jrue Holiday, JJ Redick, Derrick Favors and Lonzo Ball -– all of whom could yield significant returns. If Zion comes back looking anything like he did during the preseason, New Orleans should try to make a run for the playoffs. If it struggles, the Pelicans should worry about the future and focus on getting their young, talented roster as much experience as possible.