Tankapalooza 2019: Where the NBA teams stand with a month to go

With the eight playoff spots almost locked up in the West and a bunch of sub-.500 teams fighting for the remaining places in the East, let us turn our attention to the most exciting, hotly contested race left in the NBA season: the battle for Zion Williamson, aka, Tankapalooza 2019.

The NBA changed its lottery odds for this season, meaning there’s not as much incentive to reach the outright bottom of the standings. Still, finishing in the bottom three gets you a 14 percent chance at Williamson, the Duke freshman who has been destroying NCAA opponents and Nikes at a frightening rate. And since even the eighth-worst team has a 6 percent shot at Zion, we can see why some teams have given up on the playoff push and have committed to driving the tank into the lottery. There are three distinct groups.

Full Tanks 

New York Knicks (13-55, 2-8 in their last 10)

Thanks to Spike Lee’s Oscar win, the Knicks achieved the dubious distinction of being the first NBA team to have their tank job mentioned at the Oscars. Some teams go all in at the trade deadline. The Knicks went all-out tank, trading their 23-year-old franchise player, Kristaps Porziņģis, in what amounted to a salary dump and then buying out Enes Kanter and Wes Matthews. Now they’ve got two max salary slots, a 14 percent chance at Williamson, a possible promise from BFFs Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, and for the first time in recent memory, all their own future draft picks. Their future would be bright if anyone but James Dolan owned the team. (Please don’t have us arrested, JD!)

Phoenix Suns (16-52, 5-5 in their last 10)

It hasn’t been a great stretch for the Phoenix Suns front office. They fired general manager Ryan McDonough one week before the season, though the owner didn’t fill his office with goats this time. Trevor Ariza signed a $15 million contract over the summer and was traded before Christmas — and that initial trade fell through when the Suns didn’t know which player named Brooks they were getting. Tyson Chandler and his $13 million contract were bought out and handed to the Lakers. They dumped 2016 lottery pick Marquese Chriss, while fellow 2016 lottery pick Dragan Bender is in “basketball hell.” The bright spot is last year’s top pick, Deandre Ayton, who’s been dominating in the Suns’ recent 4-1 run. Still, they’re almost locked into a top-three pick even if they keep knocking off teams like the Bucks and Warriors.
 

Cleveland Cavaliers (17-51, 5-5 in their last 10):

The last time LeBron James left Cleveland, the Cavs got the No. 1 pick in the draft three times in four years. Perhaps that’s why they started dismantling their team a few weeks into the season, firing coach Tyronn Lue and gradually trading off veterans. They dealt Kyle Korver, George Hill and Rodney Hood, took on some bad contracts and amassed seven future draft picks. In the past month they’ve been downright respectable, going 6-6 and relinquishing what was once a stranglehold on the league’s worst record. It helps that they got Kevin Love back from injury, and it helps even more that they played two games against the Knicks.

Chicago Bulls (19-50, 4-6 in their last 10):

Coach Fred Hoiberg was fired after the Bulls started 5-19 and was replaced by the wind-sprint-loving Jim Boylen, who faced a near revolt from his players after one week on the job. The team has “rallied” to 14-31 since then, which Boylen would attribute to wind sprints and his players leadership committee. It probably has a lot more to do with the emergence of Lauri Markkanen and acquiring Otto Porter in a lopsided deal. Even with this stretch of suspiciously competent basketball, they’re locked into a bottom-four record, and their emergent young core of Zach LaVine, Porter, Markkanen and Wendell Carter makes the quest for Williamson less desperate than it felt months ago.

Atlanta Hawks (23-45, 4-6 in their last 10):

The Hawks have a new coach and a new general manager this year, which means no one on the previous roster was safe. Atlanta loaded up the tank early, dealing Dennis Schroder to Oklahoma City for Carmelo Anthony, who spent even less time on the Hawks than Rasheed Wallace. The team started 9-24 while rookie Trae Young was thrown to the wolves with little help (although they beat the T-Wolves twice in overtime), though he’s put it together recently and won two straight Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month Awards. They’re hanging at fifth-worst but kept their Williamson hopes alive with a clutch loss to the Bulls in quadruple overtime, in which 42-year-old Vince Carter played 45 minutes. Veteran player, veteran tanking.

Opportunistic tankers 

Dallas Mavericks (27-40, 1-9 in their last 10):

The Mavericks entered the season trying to compete. They signed DeAndre Jordan to a big one-year deal, added presumptive Rookie of the Year Luka Doncic and had a veteran core primed for Dirk Nowitzki’s final season. They even started off 15-11 before their priorities shifted severely. The team started to slide, injuries piled up and Dennis Smith Jr. and Kristaps Porzingis became available. Plus, the first-round pick they gave Atlanta for Doncic was top-five protected, giving them a giant incentive to be terrible, if they weren’t in the playoffs. So Dallas traded a boatload of veterans and picks for Porzingis and then shut him down for the season. They dealt Harrison Barnes to Sacramento in a pure salary dump. And they’ve ingeniously stealth-tanked by giving Dirk big minutes, delighting the fans and destroying the defense. Dallas has lost 11 of 12 and currently has a 37 percent chance of keeping its lottery pick despite getting outscored by only a paltry 1.8 points per game on the season.

Washington Wizards (28-39, 4-6 in their last 10)

Adding Dwight Howard and Austin Rivers to the NBA’s most dysfunctional locker room in the summer seemed like a recipe for a tank job, yet the Wizards insisted they were trying to compete. But a cascade of injuries to John Wall, who had heel surgery, then a post-surgery infection and finally a torn Achilles tendon, finally convinced the Wizards to blow things up. They traded Rivers and 23-year-old Kelly Oubre for 33-year-old Trevor Ariza and salary-dumped Otto Porter and Markieff Morris. Of course, they’ve been a .500 team since then, which means Bradley Beal is really good, and their old players really weren't. They have a 6 percent chance at Williamson and a 100 percent chance of regretting Wall’s contract extension, which will pay him $170 million over the next four years, including $38 million next year when he may not play a single game.

New Orleans Pelicans (30-40, 4-6 in their last 10):

The Pelicans are the best team involved in Tankapalooza, which they entered against their will when Anthony Davis demanded a trade. When no trade emerged, New Orleans dumped Nikola Mirotic for four second-round picks. Their 30-40 record belies the quality of the team, which has a point differential of 0.0. They’d be tanking harder if the NBA wasn't forcing them to play AD 20 minutes per night, because the commissioner can’t help interfering with New Orleans.

Los Angeles Lakers (31-36, 3-7 in their last 10):

Of all the places we expected to see LeBron James when he went to Los Angeles, Tankapalooza 2019 was not one of them. After returning from his groin injury, LeBron announced he was activating playoff mode, but by “playoff,” apparently he meant the 2018 Finals, since the Lakers are 3-7 since that declaration. With the playoffs almost an impossibility, the Lakers shut down Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram for the season and announced they’re limiting LeBron’s minutes. Realistically, they could get as low as the seventh-worst record, getting them an exciting young prospect whom LeBron will trade for veteran help by February. But at least LeBron will have more time to work on "Space Jam 2."

Aimlessly driving the tank in circles

Memphis Grizzlies (28-41, 5-5 in their last 10)

The Memphis Grizzlies can’t decide whether they’re tanking or not. They made a win-now move, sending two second-rounders to the Bulls for Justin Holiday but then traded away Marc Gasol and JaMychal Green at the deadline for spare parts. Some of the indecision is the result of a lingering trade with the Celtics. Memphis owes Boston a first-rounder, and it is protected top eight this year, top six next year and becomes unprotected in 2020. So while tempted by a 7.5 percent shot at Williamson, their ideal might be to win enough games to get to the ninth-worst record, so they’d have a 4.5 percent shot at the Duke phenom — and an 80 percent chance of keeping their pick in the years when their team becomes truly terrible.