Targeting the total in Wizards-Hawks Wednesday night

We're nearing the end of the NBA regular season, with the playoffs just ten days away. There's still value to be had on the board, and with season-long trends established, teams are who they are.

We can use that to our advantage. Most of these teams have played each other two to three times already, giving us a baseline to compare to.

One game in particular stands out Wednesday night for a few reasons, and the pick here is against the over/under in the Washington Wizards vs Atlanta Hawks game.

Washington Wizards vs Atlanta Hawks

Time: 8:10 PM EST Spread: ATL -10.5 (DK) Total: 235 points (DK)

The Eastern Conference playoff field is finalized, with only seedings to be determined. The Hawks have clinched a spot in the play-in tournament, while the Wizards will have to wait until next season for a shot at the postseason.

I expect both teams to still deploy their usual lineups. Washington is looking to see who can be a long-term contributor for the team, and Atlanta can jump to the 7th or 8th seed with a few more wins.

Pace Powering the Over/Under Bet

It's interesting that both of these teams rank so highly against the over this season, both inside the top-ten, considering neither ranks highly in possessions per game or pace.

I've always gravitated towards pace of play as an indicator for betting against the total. The logic being that if a team plays a slower brand of basketball, they'll have difficulties scoring more.

Atlanta's pace ranks 20th in the league while Washington is right behind them at 21st. Trae Young has been awesome for the Hawks this season, averaging 28.2 points per game, but he isn't enough to take the over in the entire game.

Previous Meetings

This is the fourth and final meeting between these two teams, and the over is 235 points on DraftKings.

Here's where the totals have been for the first three contests: 233, 229 and 231.

Your inference is correct, none of those totals is higher than 235. It's an interesting line set by DK, one point higher than at FanDuel, and to me, that's enough to take the under in this one.

Betting: Under 235 points in WSH/ATL (-110 DK)