Tatum must step up, or Celts are done

Might we get our first competitive NBA conference final series? Tonight is an important inflection point for both us as fans and the NBA. Boston is looking to force a Game 6 after going down 0-3, and Miami is working to finish this thing off and head to the NBA Finals against Denver. We could see this going either way, which is why we're mixing up our approach for tonight's Game 5.

Choose your own adventure for Celtics-Heat Game 5

If you think Boston wins ...

It starts and ends with Jayson Tatum. The Heat know it, the Celtics know it, and most importantly, Jayson Tatum finally knows it. With their backs against the wall, it's time for Tatum to shoulder the burden of the offense and make something happen to force this series back down to Miami.

He answered the call in last round's Game 7, dropping 51, and he had a massive second half in Game 4 to finish with 33 points and keep the Celtics alive. Tatum has now dropped 30+ points in four straight at home, but just simply scoring may not be enough, we need a dominant effort.

As such, if you like the Celtics to win, the best strategy we see is betting on a big Tatum game. The moneyline feels mispriced, it feels wrong to see Boston as a -300 favorite tonight. Stay off that and instead take a shot on an outcome most likely to deliver them another win.

Betting: Jayson Tatum 40+ points (+600 FanDuel)

If you think Miami wins ...

The spread here, giving the Heat eight points, feels like a gift. We can easily see a world where the Heat are not only more competitive than they were in Game 4 but also remind us why they're up 3-1 in the first place.

Two things feel likely to happen should the Heat close out the series tonight, and one might come as a surprise, but it's the continued scoring of Caleb Martin.

Martin has been on a tear this series, going for 15+ points in all four games. In the three Miami wins, Martin has averaged 19.33 points per game off the bench, and the continued impact from the Heat's sixth man could be the difference tonight.

We'd be remiss to not bake in some Jimmy Butler production to any play built on the Heat winning, and the prop that sticks out most is his steals. In the Game 4 loss, Butler grabbed just one steal. In the three previous wins, Butler racked up nine steals, with at least two in each.

Betting:

• Caleb Martin 15+ points
• Jimmy Butler 2+ steals

Together, that comes in at +292 on FanDuel.

In the news ...

Florida Panthers advance to Stanley Cup Final — After being down 3-1 to the Bruins in Round 1, the Florida Panthers have won 11 of their last 12 games and now head to the Stanley Cup Final, their first since 1996. The Panthers took down the Hurricanes 4-3 thanks to Matthew Tkachuk's third-game winning goal of the series, sweeping Carolina in the Eastern Conference Final. Tkachuk is +350 to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, and Florida is currently +110 to win the Stanley Cup Final. We've got team of destiny vibes going here for the Panthers.

Charles Schwab Open teed off this morning — It's quite the field for this weekend's Charles Schwab Open in Texas, and there are a few betting notes and nuggets to consider as the first day gets underway. Don't expect much from the darling of the PGA Championship Michael Block, who was invited to the tournament but admitted to running on fumes following the past weekend's events. We like the odds on Jordan Spieth to win at +1400. Spieth won here in 2016 and has been runner-up three times, course history we'll happily back.

Red Sox moving Corey Kluber to bullpen role — Corey Kluber was signed this offseason and was expected to be one of Boston's top starters, but he's struggled through the first two months, prompting the Red Sox to move him into a bullpen role. This is the first time in the former Cy Young's career that he will pitch out of the bullpen in the regular season. Boston is currently 26-24, 9.5 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll