Jan 19, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) sits on the ground after a collision against the Milwaukee Bucks during the fourth quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

The Bucks have underperformed expectations so far

Originally posted on Milwaukee Bucks on SI
By Major Passons | Last updated Jan 21, 2026 7:30 AM ET

The Milwaukee Bucks were supposed to be a decent team this season and were viewed by most to be a playoff team. They added Myles Turner in a shocking free agency signing, in an era where very few impact players truly become free agents. Then they obviously still have one of the best players in the league in Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Despite having Antetokounmpo and signing Turner, the Bucks have struggled to make any type of noise at the midway point of the season. In fact, they have been so much worse than many projected that the biggest storyline for Milwaukee has been a potential trade of Antetokounmpo.

Underperforming expectations

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The Bucks projection coming into the preseason was 42.5 wins, they now have a projection of just 35.4 wins. Kevin Pelton, a writer and podcaster for ESPN, has graded Milwaukee’s season as a D- for their performance so far.

Pelton’s reasoning for the disappointing grade:

“With renewed questions about Giannis Antetokounmpo's future in Milwaukee as a backdrop, the Bucks face a battle just to make the play-in, let alone reach the playoffs or win a series for the first time since 2022. To some extent, that's to be expected with Antetokounmpo missing 14 games, during which Milwaukee has gone 3-11. But the Bucks haven't been as effective as they hoped with Giannis healthy, getting outscored by 1.1 PPG in those games. Milwaukee's rotation has been impacted by too many below-par performers and a deadline trade won't likely do enough to rectify that problem.”

The thing that is most telling that Pelton mentions is that without Antetokounmpo Milwaukee is just 3 – 11. Given their overall record is 18 – 24, this means that they are 15 – 13 when their superstar plays. The roster is built to be played around Antetokounmpo, and he creates literally everything for the Bucks, his greatness cannot be overlooked.

How to improve the grade?

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As far as what Milwaukee should do to improve their grade by the end of the season, two things need to happen. First, Antetokounmpo can not miss any other games all year or very few games. As I mentioned they actually have a winning record when he plays, and that would get them squarely into the Play-in tournament at a minimum.

Secondly, they need to take a risk on a trade. I would look to dangle Kyle Kuzma’s contract to see if there are any upgrades they can get. Finding a way to acquire someone like Ja Morant would be worth the risk as well.

The Bucks need to do everything they can to make the playoffs, because when you have one of the best players in the league you always have a chance to make a run. Some good news for Bucks fans, chances are the second half of the season will be better than the first.