The Emerging Reality Of Keegan Murray’s Shooting Decline

Rookie Record Still Holding A Lot of Weight

Murray couldn't have come out of the gates as a shooter any better than he did. He broke the record for the most threes by a rookie with 206 on an extremely impressive 41.1% from beyond the arc. He combined not only high efficiency, but high volume right out of the gate, and seemed like a lock to be a knockdown shooter for years to come.

But since that season, Murray's three-point percentage has dropped every year. He shot 35.8% in his sophomore season, 34.3% last year, and 27.2% through 19 games this season so far. That's not a great sign for someone who is supposed to be a knockdown three-point shooter.

But to give Murray credit, he's dealt with injuries all season this year and has had to deal with an ever-changing role as the Kings' roster shifts around him. That, along with his increased responsibilities on defense, make it hard for him to focus soley on shooting like he did his rookie year.

Peripheral Numbers Not Any Kinder

Unfortunately for Murray, the peripheral stats and numbers aren't much kinder than his three-point percentage. Murray has always been more of a catch-and-shoot player than a pull-up shooter, which generally limits how much a shooter can impact the game. Not that catch-and-shoot shooters aren't valuable, but they just don't bring as much of a variety to offensive scoring.

Throughout his career, he's made 521 of his 568 threes have been of the catch-and-shoot variety. And the percentages between the two have been consistent throughout his four seasons as well.

• 2025-26: Catch and Shoot: 30.3% | Pull-Up: 12.5%

• 2024-25: Catch and Shoot: 35.7% | Pull-Up: 20.9%

• 2023-24: Catch and Shoot: 37.5% | Pull-Up: 26.0%

• 2022-23: Catch and Shoot: 41.4% | Pull-Up: 50.0%

Much like his overall shooting split, it's a slow decrease in both percentages, but the pull-up three-point percentage consitently lags behind the catch-and-shoot threes.

A second peripheral stat is Murray's mid-range shooting is his shooting splits by the closest defender. He's relied heavily on getting wide-open looks throughout his career, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but he hasn't shown the ability to hit shots at a high clip when defenders are closer.

Again, having a player who can hit wide open looks is something every team would take on their roster, but being reliant on that can limit a player's ceiling.

None of this is to say that Keegan Murray isn't a great basketball player, or even that he's not deserving of his new contract at an average of $28 million per season. His combination of defense, rebounding, and finishing at the rim (a highly underrated skill of his) makes him one of the Kings best players.

But all the numbers point to the fact that Murray might not be the type of shooter everyone thought he was when he broke the rookie record. Murray has said himself that he's not worried about his shooting, and I believe him, especially with all the turmoil around the Kings throughout his NBA career. But it might be time to reframe how we look at the wing now that we have more of a proven sample size.

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