The numbers behind the two-man race for Rookie of the Year

The race for the NBA’s 2025-26 Rookie of the Year award has come down to two stars that have been locked into a tight race for months. As former Duke teammates, Kon Knueppel and Cooper Flagg have put together spectacular rookie campaigns.

Let’s break down the numbers and the context that may determine who takes home the win.

1. Traditional Stats

Flagg: 21.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.5 assists per game

Knueppel: 18.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists per game

When it comes to the traditional PRA numbers, Flagg has had the upper hand in all three this season. While the margins are small, Flagg’s production and overall skillset are a bit more versatile and complete.

With a larger role for the Mavericks, Flagg has the ball in his hands more and spends more time facilitating the offense. As an on-ball shot creator, this is where he has an advantage.

He’s also a better defender than Knueppel and has more balance in his offensive skillset. As a result, he ranks at or near the top in all three counting stats, albeit with Knueppel near the top as well.

2. Efficiency

Flagg: 47.1% FG, 29.7% 3PT, 82.3% FT

Knueppel: 47.8% FG, 42.9% 3PT, 86.2% FT

Flagg has a small advantage in the traditional stats, but Knueppel may be having the most efficient rookie season of all time.

As the league leader in threes with 268 makes at a ridiculous 42.9% clip, Knueppel’s sharpshooting is unprecedented for a rookie. He broke the rookie record for threes weeks ago and is on pace to crack the top 25 list on the NBA’s all-time single-season three-point list.

At 47.8% from the field and 86.2% from the free throw line, it took Knueppel no time at all to catch a rhythm in the NBA. Additionally, Knueppel’s 63.7% true shooting percentage ranks second-best ever for a rookie behind Grizzlies foward Brandon Clarke.

While Flagg shoots a similar 47.1% from the field, he’s only knocked down his threes at a rate of 29.7% this season. He’s certainly battled more cold streaks and inconsistencies when it comes to shooting.

Knueppel has a rather large advantage in this area.

3. Impact

Flagg: 108.9 OFFRTG, 114.8 DEFRTG, -5.9 NETRTG

Knueppel: 119.2 OFFRTG, 113.2 DEFRTG, 6.0 NETRTG

While winning isn’t as important to the ROTY race as it is to the MVP race, it’s still a major factor. Flagg has shouldered the load for the struggling Dallas Mavericks, but his show-stopping performances haven’t translated into consistent success. The same cannot be said about Kon Knueppel with the Charlotte Hornets, and the advanced stats reflect that.

He’s on pace to record the second-highest PM (plus-minus) in rookie history and currently leads all rookies in estimated offensive PM,  estimated wins added and offensive rating while ranking sixth among rookies in usage rate.

To put it simply, the Hornets have seen a major turnaround this season and it’s at least partially due to Knueppel’s impact on the game. His rookie year could have easily been a display of friction between himself, LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller for the offensive control.

Instead, it’s become a seamless boost to Charlotte’s effectiveness and the Hornets have been near the top of the league since the start of the new calendar year.

Ultimately, this year’s ROTY race has been exceptionally close. But when taking a deeper look at the numbers, Knueppel appears to have the advantage in most areas.