The Raptors offense is in a free fall

Over the last 8 games, the Raptors have the worst offensive rating in the NBA. Prior to that? The best offensive start the franchise has had to a season — as far as rankings go — in the tracking era. This coincides, quite snugly, with RJ Barrett’s injury. Is Barrett this level of defining offensive player? Most people say no. Is his absence truly the difference between one of the best offenses in the NBA and the worst? Well, things are never one thing, right? A lot has been going wrong for this offense. Strengths have become weaknesses. Weaknesses have become death sentences.

Before this stretch, the Raptors were the 2nd most efficient pull up team in the NBA and didn’t rely on them often (bottom 10 in volume). Since then, they’ve jumped into the top half of the league in volume, and fallen to the bottom 8 in efficiency. They’ve gone from the middle of the pack as a driving team, to the bottom 3. They’re a team that is middle of the pack in terms of catch and shoot performance, but one of the worst in the league when it comes to spot up efficiency. Why? Because there’s so little driving prowess on the roster, even with the benefit of attacking closeouts. Somehow, they still don’t take a lot of threes as a team.

A lot of bad, so what’s been happening?

Scottie Barnes has been very strong, for his part. You wouldn’t turn your nose up at 21.5ppg / 8.8rbs / 6apg on 62% true shooting. He’s done it, honestly, with more defensive attention directed his way. He’s driven more, and been more efficient on those drives. He’s been clever in how he uses his physicality and his finesse has met the moment as well, but he isn’t a rising tide lifting all boats.

Quickley has upped his scoring without a dip in efficiency. Maybe his numbers are a bit buoyed by his eruption against the Hornets. His assist numbers — though they are inflated, like all point guards on this roster, because of simple entry passes and chest passes to players off of screens — haven’t fallen. You can lay some of the problems at his feet as the player with the most touches on the team, that he’s lost the thread on organizing the offense. There’s probably not enough paint touches or driving prowess. Maybe he hasn’t been as strong as you’d want and there’s lots of things for him to improve, but he’s not the big red flag or the reason for the death of the offense. Not a tide of any sorts, that Quickley. A boat, to be sure.

Other major motivators? Players who are asked to create and make things happen? The two other players in the Raptors top 5 in touches (save for Barrett)? Brandon Ingram & Jamal Shead, who have both been in slumps. We’ll start with the Raptors shots leader.

“I think this is the longest stretch BI has played in awhile. I think his legs have gone here and there a little bit. He’s finding himself every now and then to be a little tired. I think we have to pick him up in that instance.” Jamal Shead told me, of the Raptors big drop off in offensive efficiency. He also pointed out how Barrett’s injury has affected their process. “Getting used to playing without somebody who averages 20 and who is a real focal point in our offense. Trying to have other people step up. I think we can do it, we just haven’t figured it out yet.”

Coach Darko also highlighted the missing Barrett, but wanted to emphasize the team he currently has: “We all know who RJ is and what he brings to the table for us. He’s a very important offensive player for us offensively. But, I don’t want to look in those terms. He’s not here, and we gotta figure it out. We have a more than capable team. We have a lot of talent. We have a lot of young guys that need to step up and improve in this stretch.”

In this stretch, Ingram has nearly as many shots as points. He’s averaging more turnovers than assists. He hasn’t been able to find efficiency anywhere. Not from the free throw line (60%) and not from downtown (35%). He’s always going to take shots and provide some level of scoring, but it’s the complete sapping of flow that his possessions have started to resemble that’s troubling. The Raptors have seen their time to first action — basically, how long does it take you to start running offense — increase slowly over this time, and it goes up along with Ingram’s usage. The longer it takes you to start offense, the fewer chances you get to break the defense down and fewer players touch the ball. You cease to function as a team.

Some of this is the fact that the Raptors are spending so much time running off ball screens for Ingram, or trying to post him up. That means he has to run down the floor, get below the free throw line, and the offense has to sort itself into structure before running offense. It’s slow. A lot of teams want to be able to work from a step up screen or a pitch play with a guard/big tandem and flow from there. Fast, intuitive offense. The Raptors don’t have that luxury because their guards are frankly quite poor at creating advantages going downhill. So, they labor away. It was easy to justify when Ingram was shooting 60-percent on his pull up middy, but he’s now in a stretch where he’s shooting around 35%. On the season he’s finally fallen below 50% on that shot. The effectiveness is starting to wane.

So, if the shots aren’t falling at the same rate? How has Ingram’s playmaking been? Well, quite poor relative to his past self.

You can make the case that the Raptors could move more for him and try to explain it to some degree, but a heavy usage player having more turnovers than assists over a meaningful stretch can only be indicative of one thing: a failure to read the defensive attention they’re getting and turn it into opportunities for others. Ingram is far too talented to be putting up 30 turnovers to 25 assists. He is a good playmaker. Even if Ingram shoots the ball well, like he did against the Celtics, this narrow path of outcomes — slow offense, slow reads, and less dynamic process — is going to hurt the Raptors.

“I think just being aggressive (is causing the turnovers). I’m trying to find out where my teammates are on the floor and being able to deliver the basketball a little bit better. Making sure that my passes are on time, on target so they can go into a rhythm shot or catch and go to the rim to get an easy basket.” Ingram told me. “I’m not in a role to pass the ball as much as I’ve been passing the ball and playmake, but you know guys are out. So, I gotta make sure that my teammates are touching the basketball and feeling involved when they’re out on the floor.”

Does Barrett returning fix this? It’ll definitely help somewhat. Barrett doesn’t just necessarily space and form up as an off-ball player, waiting to be noticed by a surveying creator. He cuts to the ball, to your face. He makes you see him, and then he does something with the ball afterwards. There’s a reason Ingram has had such glowing things to say about Barrett from media day onwards – he really likes playing with him.

“He’s another scoring threat. He moves without the basketball. He doesn’t need much. He doesn’t need much on the offensive end to score the basketball. He knows himself. He knows his game.” Ingram said of Barrett. “Of course we miss RJ, our offense was flowing a little bit more fluid when he was on the floor. But, that’s the league. Guys are gonna be in and out of the lineup and we just gotta figure out how to make adjustments and make the best of it.”

So, the Raptors aren’t finding flow. They’re slow and rote. Who do they turn to? Shead. The guard who attacks closeouts, extends advantages, moves on and off the ball with a delightful quickness. During the Raptors big, successful offensive stretch, Shead was genuinely one of the most unique guards in the NBA when it came to helping out on offense.

Only, since the hierarchy changed, Shead doesn’t have the benefit of attacking tilted defenses as often. The fact that he was rarely touching the paint as a driver and getting off of it early? A unique quirk of his playmaking. Now? A painful and repeated shortcoming to create advantages for others. The fact that he was hardly shooting and moving the ball on? A cool connector. Now? A real limitation. The Raptors have asked him to score more. The result? A devastating slump. 27% from the floor, 17% from downtown, and a dip in assists despite playing more minutes and carrying more usage. He is the Raptors highest frequency pick n’ roll player relative to his usage (actually one of the highest in the NBA), but when he initiates a pick n’ roll the Raptors are generating a paltry .872 points per possession, a number that places him in the bottom third of the league.

Is it unfair to focus in on these guys? I’m not sure, but they get the ball to try things. Guys who have the ball are inextricably more closely connected to the outcomes. I’ll say, it’s a far bigger compliment to these guys that the Raptors are looking to them to fix this, on ball, than if they’d been relegated to less, like the players we’re discussing next.

The off ball guys like Walter, Dick, Battle, Agbaji – they hardly touch the ball. The Raptors have flattened their offensive process to feed possessions to their main creators. Which, given where things were offensively, seemed like it made a lot of sense. The surrounding cast has struggled immensely as shot makers (save for Battle) over this stretch, and they weren’t superb prior to it.

The fact that the Raptors haven’t been able to rely on them to finish the limited possessions that come their way and quite simply don’t trust them to create a thing, well it puts them in a quagmire. It’s clear to see the lead ball handlers are starting to feel overtaxed, but the Raptors are uncomfortable to ask other players to step up. What they’re asking for, is for them to make the random, limited shots that come their way. An offense that is becoming increasingly reliant on mid-range shot making is not one that carves out looks for role players. The Raptors have been worse at breaking the opposing teams shell and creating defensive rotations.

“Those guys go out there and try and do their jobs. I think they’re gonna figure it out pretty soon.” Shead said of the Raptors bench guards. “We just gotta put it together as a team. You go out there and try to be productive in the minutes you have. Try and be productive. Try and be a plus.”

The expectation was never that the Raptors were going to be world beater’s on offense. A franchise best. At least, not for me. I thought they’d be a good deal better than last year. On the whole, they definitely have been. They’re still in the top half of the league (14th), but they’re a long ways off from the top 5 where they lived two weeks ago.

It’s fair to expect that Barrett’s return will help the Raptors a fair bit by re-settling the hierarchy of the offense — there’s a reason his teammates cite his absence as a huge reason for their offensive woes — but problems will still remain. Problems that need to be solved for the Raptors to reach their full potential.

“I’m glad it’s happening early in the season. Gives us a chance to figure it out.” Ingram told us. I hope they figure it out, too.