Dec 27, 2025; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra walks on the court after the game against the Indiana Pacers at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

This trend could decided the Heat's fate this season

Originally posted on Miami Heat on SI | By Major Passons | Last updated Jan 4, 2026 9:15 AM ET

The Miami Heat have greatly improved their offense, and it has done wonders for the team. They have improved their offensive rating from 21st (112.4) to 13th (114.9) in the NBA this season. They have also increased their points per game average from 24th in the league at 110.6 to 3rd this season at 120.9. The pace has been the big driver for most of the success and currently play at a speed no other team in the league comes close to matching. Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has done a phenomenal job. Though they have improved on that end there is still plenty of work to do and that is no more clear than this statistic.

The Heat struggled against good defenses with a record of 2-8 against teams in the top 10 in defensive rating. Their offensive rating plummets to 105.9 against teams in the top 10, which obviously is far away from the 114.9 average against all teams. Not only is the drop off huge, but when compared to other teams its even worse. They are dead last in the rating in the whole league. This shows a glaring flaw, which could become fatal once the playoffs begin. This will be the next thing Spoelstra will have to figure out.

After last night, Heat vs. Top 10 Defenses (2-7 record)...

Off Rating: 105.9 (Rank 30)
Def Rating: 109.8 (Rank 1)

So the offense has struggled against the best units, but they've essentially been able to match elite defense with elite defense.
— Couper Moorhead (@CoupNBA) January 2, 2026

When looking at potential playoff matchups there are many teams in the Eastern Conference in the top 10 of defensive rating. Outside of the Heat, who sit at 3rd, there are 3 other Eastern conference teams in the top 10. They are the Detroit Pistons (2nd), Toronto Raptors (5th), and Orlando Magic (10th). Then you also have the Philadelphia 76ers (12th) and Cleveland Cavaliers (13th) who are both within a point of being in the top 10. Basically, if the Heat were able to make the playoffs there is a good chance that the team they are playing is a top 10 defense. The good news for Miami is they have time to figure it out.

The one positive is the Heat are able to match the worst offense with the best defense in these games. Their defensive rating against top 10 teams is 109.8 which is obviously elite. No Heat fan is surprised that the Heat once again can rely on their defense to keep them in games when their offense is struggling. Spoelstra will have his work cut out for him to change the offensive statistic, but he will love that his defense is able to keep them in games.

This article first appeared on Miami Heat on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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