Three big Timberwolves-Thunder questions ahead of fascinating series

The Timberwolves and Thunder are all set to begin a fascinating Western Conference Finals series on Tuesday night in Oklahoma City. Before it gets underway, here are three big Wolves questions to monitor as the games unfold.

Can the Wolves take care of the basketball?

This feels like THE key question that might determine whether or not the Timberwolves make it to the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history. If the Wolves turn the ball over like they did against the Warriors, they'll be in deep, deep trouble against the Thunder, who are incredible at forcing TOs and turning them into easy points in transition.

Minnesota was 19th in turnover rate in the regular season. The Thunder were No. 1 in opponent turnover rate. In the playoffs, both of those numbers have actually gone up. The Wolves turned it over nearly 20 percent of the time against Golden State, but the Warriors didn't have the firepower to make them pay for it. The Thunder very much do.

"They have to take care of the ball better than they have for years now and so far in the playoffs," analyst Zach Lowe said while previewing the series. "If this is a high turnover series, they are dead on arrival. If this is an average turnover series, they have some minority chance to pull an upset. If this is a low turnover series for them, which is extremely difficult against the handsiest team in the league, they have a chance to win the series. They were 19th in turnover rate in the regular season and their turnover rate has been higher in the playoffs. That is death. If that sustains, they're not going to win."

"(Minnesota's) turnover-proneness is likely to be fatal against this handsy, voracious defense," John Hollinger said in explaining why he picked the Thunder in 5.

The Wolves have some theoretical advantages in this series. They should be able to out-shoot the Thunder and win on the glass. They can match OKC with star power, depth, size, and defensive tenacity. But if they can't limit turnovers on offense — and that starts with Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, the two guys who have the ball in their hands the most — those other factors won't matter much.

How much zone defense will Chris Finch utilize?

It'll be very interesting to see if the Timberwolves break out a zone defense early and often against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder. It's not something they did much at all during the regular season, but they did go to it against Oklahoma City during their matchups. The Wolves went zone for 52 defensive possessions against the Thunder, which was over a third of their total zone possessions in the entire regular season. The zone helped spark the Wolves when they rallied from a 24-point fourth-quarter deficit and won in overtime in the most recent meeting between these teams.

The Nuggets had some success going zone against OKC in their second-round series, which the Thunder needed seven games to win. It's not too difficult to realize why it can work. The Thunder, for all of their strengths on offense, have struggled to make threes during these playoffs (31.9 percent, 14th out of 16 teams). Their four players who see the most minutes — SGA, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Lu Dort — have all shot it between 25 and 32 percent from deep in the postseason. If you can force them to take semi-contested threes, you're taking them out of their comfort zone a bit.

It also works to throw off the usual man-to-man pick-and-roll rhythm for Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams. With nearly a full week to prepare for this series, the Wolves may feel like zone is something they can utilize to test the Thunder's outside shooting.

"I'm gonna be shocked if we don't see the Wolves throw a lot of zone at the Thunder early in the series," Lowe said. "And see — can you beat this consistently or not? I think that's a card they're gonna play in this series."

Will Finch expand his rotation at all?

One interesting thing about the regular season matchups between the Timberwolves and Thunder is that it heavily featured a few players who have not been in Minnesota's rotation for a couple months now. With Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, and Donte DiVincenzo missing all three contests between the teams in a 12-day span in February, the Wolves went smaller and leaned on players like Jaylen Clark, Terrence Shannon Jr., and Rob Dillingham.

Since getting healthy, the Wolves have been back to the usual eight-man rotation they began the season with. It's a tighter rotation than the one used by the Thunder, who have had ten players appear in every playoff game so far and average at least ten minutes.

Will Finch consider expanding his rotation at all in this series? It would be stunning if Dillingham saw any real time, but Clark and Shannon both have a case to see the floor after doing plenty of good things against OKC in February. Clark is a tenacious defender whose physicality could be useful against SGA in short spurts. Shannon might legitimately be the best offensive transition player and rim attacker on the Wolves' roster (he's at least No. 2 behind Edwards).

The two players blocking their minutes, Donte DiVincenzo and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, have not shot the ball well at all during these playoffs. DiVincenzo has managed to be pretty effective nonetheless. But there's at least an argument that if it doesn't look like NAW has it going on a given night, Finch should consider giving Clark and/or Shannon an opportunity to provide a spark.

I can't wait. This series promises to be NBA basketball at its best.

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