Thunder vs. Pacers: NBA Finals Series Preview

Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard will likely draw the assessment as the primary defenders before potential adjustments are made.

This series will come down to how these two offensive engines perform.

Keys To The Series

Pace

Both Oklahoma City and Indiana want to play fast. The Pacers are third in pace, averaging 98.4 possessions per game in the playoffs, and the Thunder are playing even faster, ranking second in pace at 100.6 possessions per game.

The Pacers and Thunder’s offense starts in transition. The Thunder are first in fast break points at 17.8 points per game, and the Pacers are not too far behind, ranking third at 15.5 points per game. Both will run off of turnovers. The Pacers specialize in running off rebounds and are the best in the league in running off-made baskets. 

The Thunder have been a very good transition defensive team. They only allow 9.3 opponents fast break points per game, which is suitable for 13.6% of their opponents’ possessions and has the lowest rate in the playoffs.

Establishing and controlling their pace will define these Finals—the Thunder with its defense and the Pacers with its offense will be a fun clash. 

The Turnover Battle

Anthony Edwards described the Thunder’s defense as “15 puppets on one string” after facing their defense for five games in the Western Conference Finals.

Now, it’s Haliburton’s turn to conduct offense against this historically great Thunder’s defense. No team has been able to take care of the ball against this defense up until this point. 

However, the Pacers are one of the best teams at protecting the ball, averaging only 12.7 turnovers per game in the postseason. The Thunder also protect the ball better than the Pacers, averaging only 11.8 turnovers per game.

Oklahoma City forces turnovers at a historical rate, which plays a big factor in the Thunder’s historically great defense, which has only gotten better in the postseason. The Thunder score 23.8 points off turnovers, which ranks first by a wide margin in the playoffs. 

The Pacers will provide a different challenge for the Thunder, as Indiana limits and generates turnovers— ranking 2nd in points off turnovers at 18.5 points per game and 1st in opponent points off turnovers at 12.5 points per game.

Indiana has not faced this caliber of defense in Oklahoma City, but if they can limit turnovers, how does that impact the series?

The turnover battle will be one of the biggest keys in helping the Thunder’s defense thrive. 

Limiting The Pacers Three-Point Shooting

A huge key to the Pacers’ ranking first in ORTG is their three-point shooting. The Pacers are shooting 40% from three, which leads all playoff teams, and they are knocking down 46.9% of their corner threes and 43.9% of their catch-and-shoot threes this postseason.

Here are every rotational Pacers player’s three-point shooting percentages in the playoffs:

Thomas Bryant ➡️ 53% on 0.9 attempts 

Aaron Nesmith ➡️ 50% on 5.4 attempts

Andrew Nembhard ➡️ 48% on 3.8 attempts 

Pascal Siakam ➡️ 46% on 3.4 attempts

Ben Sheppard ➡️ 42% on 1.9 attempts

Myles Turner ➡️ 40% on 3.9 attempts

Jarace Walker ➡️ 40% on 1.7 attempts

T.J. McConnell ➡️ 35% on 0.9 attempts

Tyrese Halliburton ➡️ 33% on 7.1 attempts

Obi Toppin ➡️ 28% on 2.6 attempts

Bennedict Mathurin ➡️ 28% on 2.6 attempts

The top offense will meet the top defense, and a pivotal battle will be played at the three-point line. The Thunder allowed its opponents to shoot only 34% from three in the regular season, which led the league, and its opponents are only shooting 33 percent in the playoffs.

However, Oklahoma City’s defensive scheme revolves around limiting paint touches by crowding the paint, resulting in hard closeouts on threes. The Thunder tend to give up a lot of threes, especially corner threes, as they allow the most corner threes.

Given how well Indiana shoots the ball, this area of the Thunder’s historical defense could be exploited.

Rick Carlisle vs. Mark Daigneault

Carlisle is making his second Finals appearance as a head coach, while Daigneault is making his first appearance on this stage. 

Daigneault is among the youngest coaches in the NBA (40) and already has a Coach of the Year trophy on his resume. Daigneault has already emerged as one of the best coaches in the league, but the X’s and O’s chess match against Carlisle will be worth monitoring. 

Carlisle has a long history of maximizing his talent and is an offensive mastermind. How Daigneault adjusts to Carlisle’s schemes, adjustments, and counters will be a deciding factor in this series. 

X-Factors

Pascal Siakam

Pascal Siakam’s championship pedigree, consistent scoring, and offensive versatility have been on full display throughout these playoffs. Named the Eastern Conference Finals MVP, Siakam averaged 24.8 points, five rebounds, and 3.5 assists, shooting 52 percent from the floor and 50% from three. 

Siakam’s versatility in the front-court will be key for the Pacers to break through the Thunder’s defense. 

Myles Turner

Myles Turner’s combination of size, rim protection, and shooting will be a swing factor in this series. His presence in the paint and his ability to stretch the floor have been pivotal for the Pacers. He’s averaging 15.2 points and 2.3 blocks per game and shooting 40 percent from three on 3.9 attempts.

Turner’s ability to consistently stretch the floor and be a rim deterrent will be key for the Pacers. 

Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith will be counted on to hit open threes. He’s averaging 14.1 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, shooting 50% from the floor and 50% from three on 5.4 attempts in the playoffs, so he is critical to their success.

Nesmith’s ability to knock down threes and attack closeouts while being a primary defender on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams will be a huge swing factor in this series.

Oklahoma City’s Co-Stars

Since Game 6 of the Denver series, it seems as if Jalen Williams has turned the corner, averaging 22.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.8 steals on 51/45/81 shooting splits. 

Gilgeous-Alexander will be the Pacers’ main priority, making Williams’ consistency the deciding factor for the Thunder.

With Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams receiving the majority of the headlines, the two-way impact of Chet Holmgren has gone under the radar. 

Holmgren averaged 18 points, six rebounds, and 1.6 blocks, shooting 56 percent from the floor and 36 percent from three. 

Holmgren’s length, ability to stretch out the defense, ability to attack closeouts, and presence in the paint can be a problem for the Pacers. 

Series Prediction

Oklahoma City in five. This speaks more about the Thunder, who’s been the best team all year and have had one of the best seasons of all time, running away with the best record in the regular season and conquering the Western Conference. The Pacers deserve everyone’s respect, and I expect most of the games to be close.

However, the Thunder have won in many ways, and I expect that to continue in this series, as the Thunder have the edge in star power and depth and are the better team on both ends, along with having homecourt advantage.

The Thunder have shown championship pedigree all year, with the franchise’s first-ever championship so close… They will complete the mission in a challenging and competitive series to close out an all-time great season.