The New York Knicks head to Detroit for Game 3 with the series tied at 1-1. They’ve been outplayed for seven of the eight quarters in the series and should expect a raucous Pistons crowd in the Motor City. Now, the Knicks are a significantly better team, although they haven’t played like it. If they can make necessary adjustments on both sides of the ball, NY should win this series in five or six games. The biggest changes that Tom Thibodeau needs to consider are with his lineup construction.
For most of this season, New York’s healthy rotation looked to be obvious. Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Karl-Anthony Towns are the starters, with Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson coming off the bench to round out the top seven. Cameron Payne, Landry Shamet, and Precious Achiuwa figured to get a chance for spot minutes depending on the matchup. While this was the case for almost the entire regular season, things have changed down the stretch. Now that the playoffs have started, it is obvious that Thibodeau must make changes.
While the top seven guys should be unchanged (with Payne and Shamet making it nine), the minutes distribution should be switched around. Brunson, Bridges, Anunoby, and Towns should all receive their normal workload, short of a rare situation such as Game 1, where Bridges sat most of the fourth quarter because of a Payne explosion.
One of the keys to this series and a potential Knicks playoff run is Thibodeau’s willingness to bench Hart. Hart is one of Thibs’ guys due to his energetic play style, and he’s a great role player, but he’s currently hurting his team. When Hart is struggling to shoot as badly as he is right now (30.2% from three on 3.2 attempts per game since February 1st), he becomes borderline unplayable on offense. Detroit is completely ignoring him as a shooter and screener, allowing them to help off of him onto NY’s ball-handlers. New York is simply playing offense four-on-five with Hart on the floor, which cannot continue if they want to reach their ceiling.
There are ways to scheme around Hart’s shooting weakness, such as using him as a cutter or off-ball screener, but Thibodeau has shown an inability/refusal to innovate NY’s offense. He seems compelled to stick with Brunson and Towns attacking matchups in stagnant isolation. Hart’s flaws destroy their chances of scoring in that type of offense.
Until Hart shows a willingness to aggressively take and make threes (which he has in the past), his minutes should be lowered substantially. McBride and Robinson should each receive six to eight more minutes a night, decreasing Hart to 18-20 minutes. He’s still a useful role player now, but should be used in smaller spurts where he can weaponize his hustle.
Offensively, both players bring value to the Knicks in different ways. McBride is arguably NY’s best off-ball shooter, which will dramatically improve their spacing. Their lack of spacing around their two elite scorers has been New York’s biggest issue in this series. Spreading the floor will help them regain their identity as one of the league’s best offenses. Robinson can thrive as a screener and lob threat, providing vertical spacing for the Knicks. Currently, Hart is bringing nothing to the table offensively, besides pushing the ball in transition.
On the defensive side of the ball, both guys are massive improvements over Hart. While the Villanova product is a solid defender, both McBride and Robinson are elite on that end. NY’s biggest defensive weaknesses are the inability to navigate screens and stay in front of the ball, as well as rim protection with Towns at the five. McBride takes care of the screen navigation and perimeter defense, while Robinson will dominate the paint. Big lineups with Towns and Robinson give Thibodeau a new dimension on the glass, which he clearly values.
While Hart is a fan favorite and a classic Thibs player, he’s hurting the Knicks by being on the floor. Thibodeau needs to swallow his pride and lower his usage before it’s too late.
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