Too low? Assessing Timberwolves' win projections for the 2025-26 season

The Minnesota Timberwolves enter the 2025-26 NBA season looking to get back to the Western Conference Finals for a third consecutive year — and to then get over that hump and reach the first NBA Finals in franchise history. They've averaged 52.5 wins over the past two seasons, despite making a league-shaking trade that swapped Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo just over a year ago. This year, they have continuity and perhaps more depth than ever.

And yet, national projections and Vegas oddsmakers don't exactly view the Wolves as a top-tier contender heading into this season.

ESPN recently released its win projections for all 30 teams, based on a model created by Kevin Pelton. They have the Wolves at 43.7 wins, which puts them eighth in the West. That would, quite simply, be a massive disappointment for a Minnesota team that brought back every piece of last year's core outside of Nickeil Alexander-Walker and believes it will improve based on continuity and growth from young players.

Here are the model's projections of the top 10 teams in the conference:

1. Oklahoma City Thunder — 59.2
2. Golden State Warriors — 56.1
3. Denver Nuggets — 52.2
4. LA Clippers — 49.7
5. Houston Rockets — 46.9
6. Los Angeles Lakers — 45.8
7. Memphis Grizzlies — 44.6
8. Minnesota Timberwolves — 43.7
9. Dallas Mavericks — 43.6
10. Sacramento Kings — 43.5

Two things jump out here. The first is that 56 wins feels extremely high for the Warriors, who are relying pretty heavily on Steph Curry (37 years old), Jimmy Butler (36), Draymond Green (35), and Al Horford (39). Next is that the Grizzlies being above the Timberwolves makes very little sense. Memphis got swept by the Thunder last year, lost Desmond Bane in the offseason, and is starting the season with Ja Morant dealing with an injury.

Interestingly enough, Pelton made note in his Timberwolves blurb that this exact same thing happened last season. A year ago, his model had the Wolves projected for 42.5 wins despite coming off of a 56-win season (and that was before the KAT trade). They went on to win 49 despite a slow start, then beat the Lakers and Warriors in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

"The Timberwolves were one of my model's big misses a season ago, winning 49 games while projected for 42.7," Pelton wrote. "In part, Minnesota benefited from favorable health on the perimeter. Nickeil Alexander-Walker's departure means one of the Wolves' young guards will have to step into a rotation role, and Terrence Shannon Jr. — the most likely contender ahead of the season — projects poorly. But don't blame Minnesota fans for thinking their team is underrated after back-to-back trips to the conference finals."

The Wolves' over/under Vegas win total is currently 49.5 at prominent sportsbooks. That feels like a much fairer line than the 43.7 from Pelton's model. Among West teams, only the Thunder, Nuggets, and Rockets have higher over/unders than Minnesota.

It feels like the top tier in the West is Oklahoma City by itself, the next tier should include Denver, Houston, and Minnesota, and the tier right behind them is the Clippers, Lakers, and Warriors. Memphis, Dallas, and San Antonio are then in the next tier of teams who could emerge.

This should be a fun season for the Timberwolves in year two with Randle and DiVincenzo alongside the core of Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, and Rudy Gobert. They have a question mark at point guard, but they're confident in Shannon stepping in for Alexander-Walker without missing a beat. 50 wins is very much in play for this group if they come out of the gates hot.

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