Understanding the Hiring of Doc Rivers

Out with Griffin

Adrian Griffin was unceremoniously fired after just 43 games in change. The Bucks have the second-best league record. But they’ve dropped down to 21^st in defensive rating after having one of the best defenses in the Budenholzer era. This has led the owners and GM Jon Horst have elected to add a 3^rd coach to their payroll (both Budenholzer and Griffin have active contracts).

What goes wrong when the Bucks Lose?

Damian Lillard has largely borne the brunt for much of the Bucks’ defensive woes. Reels of his lethargic defensive performances make the rounds of every media outlet after every loss. What is surprising, though, is that in the 14 losses so far (not a great sample, I admit), Lillard has slightly outdone himself defensively when compared to his performance in wins. He has almost double the steal rate and marginally better opposition FG%.

So, what does change when the Bucks lose from when they win?

The Greek Freak has consistently churned out 30+/10+/5+ performances in both wins and losses.  Same with Khris Middleton and Malik Beasley and almost all other players. The sharp drop off is notable in points and rebounding. Lillard shoots an abysmal 30% from the floor, and 28% from beyond the arc, averaging 19 points down from 28 in wins.

Rams GM Les Snead infamously wore “F*** them picks” t-shirt at their victory parade. If the management had shown a bit more patience, perhaps Griffin could have sported a “F*** Defense” tee. However, by trading Holiday for Lillard, they knew what they were getting into. That’s why they hired Griffin to implement a robust defense, his specialty, since the offense with Lillard and Giannis would take care of itself. Failing this only requirement somewhat justified the firing.

Enter Doc Rivers

Now, the hiring of Doc Rivers on the other hand makes little sense. Doc’s experience managing a multi-star team is purported as a vital reason for his hiring. But what about his results? His dismissal from the Clippers (who had George and Leonard) and the subsequent hiring of his assistant Ty Lue led to him proclaiming that Ty couldn’t do anything different. So far, so true. In Philadelphia, they gave him an MVP Embiid, a confident Simmons, a do-it-all Harris, and a semi-happy Harden. Even with this group, they never made it out of the semi-finals. Why should his stint with the Bucks be any different?

Rivers is not known for his defense. A look into the teams he has managed shows that the defense slightly worsens on average. His teams have an average net rating of -2.2 when comparing defensive rating in his first and second years to the year prior to his hiring. If the objective is to plug their leaky defense, Doc’s history suggests that he is not going to fix that. However, if the objective now is to find an even more potent offense that unleashes Lillard and makes him a consistent threat while implementing some semblance of a cohesive defensive unit, then maybe, just maybe, it might work.