Throughout the most recent NBA offseason, the Utah Jazz have had the challenging dilemma of deciding whether or not to extend their fourth-year big man and center of the future, Walker Kessler.
The standout defensive anchor heads into the last year of his rookie contract this season, and after a strong three-year sample size in Utah, all signs point to that new deal coming to form at some point––whether that comes before the season, or next summer as Kessler hits the restricted free agent market.
But if the Jazz opt to extend their 24-year-old big man before the 2025-26 season officially tips off, what could the numbers on that deal look like?
We've seen other big names selected in his draft class already receiving extensions worth over $100 million, and in some cases, even $200 million to ink those young stars on their respective rosters for the foreseeable future— setting up for a big payday to head his way sooner rather than later.
In the case of Kessler, he probably stands somewhere in the middle of those two numbers for his next deal. But ESPN's Bobby Marks personally sees a potential fit at a five-year, $116 million deal making sense for both the Jazz and the big man himself.
"Five years, $116 million. The extension would be a win-win for both sides," Marks predicted. "For Kessler, the $20 million starting salary next season ranks in the top 15 among all centers. The Jazz, on the other hand, would lose only $4 million in cap flexibility next summer."
For reference, according to Spotrac, a $20 million annual salary puts Kessler right in between the value that Ivica Zubac ($19.5 million) and Nic Claxton ($23 million) have; which places him as the 14th-highest-paid player at his position.
The question becomes: would the Jazz and Kessler be amiable with those terms?
From the Jazz's perspective, that agreement makes logical sense. It's a fair, team-friendly deal that doesn't cripple their cap space, and stamps their five-man of the future on the roster for the next half-decade.
From Kessler and his representatives' perspective, such an agreement might be a bit more difficult to be onboard with––especially if the Jazz have flexibility on hand to offer a better annual value.
For argument's sake, perhaps a $25 million starting salary would more plausible for Kessler. That places him as the 12th-highest-paid center right behind Myles Turner, and might be a better representation of how he should be valued amongst the top names at his position.
If that's the case though, would the Jazz be more favorable to double-down on hashing out an agreement before his fourth season kicks off, or would they rather table those negotiations until next year?
At this point in the offseason, the latter seems like the more likely option.
Such a move preserves the Jazz's salary cap space and flexibility, allows another year's sample size of Kessler to be put on display for the front office before paying out their deal, and lets him hit restricted free agency, to which Utah would have any right to match an offer any other team was willing to extend.
ESPN's Tim Bontemps goes on to share the same sentiment following Marks' projection, calling the move ultimately "unlikely" when considering the broader implications in play.
"This one is unlikely," he wrote. "Both sides have signaled it won't happen, and Kessler's low cap hold for next summer without an extension will make him a valuable trade option or a valuable player for the Jazz to retain and build around as they begin to move into the next phase of their rebuild under Ainge."
For Kessler, he's made his feelings clear on the matter during his media day presser: playing without a new extension is "a little frustrating," but he'll continue to play winning basketball for the Jazz as long as he's in the building.
Time will tell if the Jazz and Kessler can come to terms before the league's extension deadline next week on October 20th. But don't be shocked if the date comes and goes without Utah inking their five-man of the future to a multi-year agreement.
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