Warriors vs. Celtics NBA Finals Game 6 prediction, odds, best bet: Luck runs out for Boston

Golden State won on its home floor in Game 5, and Boston is now at risk of losing the NBA Finals at home unless it can rally the troops one more time tonight.

Three times the Celtics have faced elimination in the playoffs so far, and they have won all three, primarily because Jayson Tatum has dug deep and played great. He has been just OK in this series, but if the Celtics are going to extend the series to a Game 7, they need him to come up big again.

For the Warriors, they have to love that they got the win in the last game even though Steph Curry had his worst shooting game in recent memory. I loved the way he mixed up his game so he wasn't a total zero out there, and even though he struggled I would not be surprised if he makes his first seven three-pointers in Game 6 tonight. That is just the kind of player he is. He is not John Starks!

Every game in this series has seen the home team favored by three to four points. Tonight is no different. We have yet to see a close game in this series though, which I am still very surprised by.  

Game Info

Golden State Warriors (3-2) vs. Boston Celtics (2-3)
Thursday, June 16, 2022
9:00 PM ET
TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
ABC

Betting Odds

Spread: Warriors +4 (-110), Celtics -4 (-110)
Total: 210
Moneyline: Warriors +145, Celtics -165

Best Bet

Golden State +4

There is a lot of math supporting a Celtics win and an extension of the series tonight.

For example, they are 7-1 off a loss in the playoffs, and they have not lost three games in a row since December.

That loss in the 7-1 note above was against the Warriors though, and with Golden State being able to win so many different ways, I love the Warriors plus the points tonight.

All series long I saw this one going six so no matter how we got here, we are right where I thought we would be. That doesn't mean I am blind betting Golden State though. Otherwise, I would say moneyline or nothing. 

Tonight, I do expect Boston to play with urgency and to not shy away from the moment. I am looking for big games from Tatum and Jaylen Brown as Boston looks to make sure it does not leave anything in the tank as it tries to extend the series. 

It would not surprise me if those guys combined for 70+ points, but I like the Warriors with their ability to score in so many ways and with so many different players. They will be able to keep up, and when it gets late and close, Golden State has the defenders to reduce the efficiency of Tatum and Brown to get the win. Those four points are great value so that is the play.

Boston has some really good role players, but I would much rather have Klay Thompson shooting or Andrew Wiggins driving than Al Horford or Marcus Smart from deep when it really matters. The experience of the Dubs has been evident as they were the first team to win back-to-back games in the series to take control.

Score Prediction: Golden State 106 - Boston 102