West Notes: Clippers, Kawhi Leonard, Lakers, Mavericks, Kyrie Irving

Clippers

ESPN’s Kevin Pelton sees the Clippers outperforming their betting line with 49.7 wins, thanks in large part to a positive outlook on Kawhi Leonard’s health. Pelton’s model projects Leonard to play 66 games, similar to last season’s 68 — which would mark his second-highest total since joining Los Angeles.

Beyond that, the roster’s balance stands out.

“The Clippers also benefit from having no player rated worse than minus-0.5 points per 100 possessions projected for more than 200 minutes,” Pelton wrote, suggesting strong depth and no major weak spots in the rotation.

Lakers

For the Lakers, Pelton’s projection again falls short of Vegas expectations. That’s actually something of an annual tradition.

As he points out, Los Angeles has averaged 5.7 fewer wins than its betting total since 2013-14, the biggest gap for any team in that span.

The hype is understandable, but Pelton remains skeptical of the roster’s balance. He has them at 45.8 wins.

“The Lakers are far and away the league’s top-heaviest team,” he wrote, noting that just four players project as better than league average.

The only other teams in that category — the Nets, Jazz, and Wizards — are expected to land in the lottery.

Mavericks

Pelton’s model gives the Mavericks a modest bump above their betting total, even if he admits some skepticism about roster fit.

Dallas has eight players rated above league average, including Kyrie Irving, who is currently sidelined with a knee injury and without a timetable for return.

Pelton notes that D’Angelo Russell will need to steady the backcourt until Irving is back, but still sees enough depth and top-end talent to outperform expectations.

“This roster isn’t getting quite enough credit,” he wrote, “given Irving’s injury and the Luka Doncic trade in February.”