What Draymond Green's contract extension really means for Warriors, NBA

One month after the departures of Kevin Durant and Andre Iguodala, the Golden State Warriors locked up Draymond Green through 2023-24 with a four-year, $100 million extension. It’s a risk-averse move on both sides -– Draymond chooses financial security over the uncertainty of restricted free agency next summer, and the Warriors commit to the third member of their core instead of scrambling on a second straight July 1.

The revamped Warriors suddenly have four starters signed through at least 2022: Steph Curry (2022), D’Angelo Russell (2023), Klay Thompson (2024) and Green (2024). But while this gives the reigning Western Conference champs stability, it also removes the best player from an already sparse 2020 free-agency class.

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While the Warriors are stable, they’re by no means set. They still won’t have cap space, but at least they won’t be hard-capped at the apron next season -- which cost them Andre Iguodala this summer. They have a big trade exception from sending Iguodala to Memphis, and if Russell doesn’t mesh with his new team, he becomes an even bigger human trade exception, either at the trade deadline or during the summer. The 2023-24 season could get ugly, as the Warriors will be paying 34-year-old Green and Thompson over $70 million combined. They better hope Thompson's ACL recovery goes smoothly, and that the 6-foot-7 Green, a world-class defender though undersized at both front-court spots, doesn’t lose a step. Mainly, this move bets that the champs can reload in 2020-21 and get right back into title contention, luxury tax be damned.

It seems certain that Green, 29, could have had more than $100 million this summer –- Al Horford, a similar player who’s four years older, got $109M from Philadelphia. But Draymond probably couldn’t have gotten more from the Warriors, and that’s the key. This year was an aberration, with aspiring contenders in big cities (both LA teams, both NYC teams, Philly) awash in cap space, along with chosen one Zion Williamson’s team. 

Draymond simply isn’t wired to take a bigger payday on a bad team, and that’s who has cap space next summer. Sure, he could hope that Trae Young & Co. put it together in Atlanta, but for self-professed “16-game player” Green, it’s really playoffs or nothing. Plus, we’ve seen Durant, Kyrie Irving, and plenty of others sacrifice financially in order to play where they want. If you’re already making nine figures, you can afford to leave money on the table.

What this means for the rest of the league is that there’s little chance to get a game-changer in free agency. With Green off the market, the top 2020 restricted free agents are Oklahoma City's Danilo Gallinari and Houston's Eric Gordon -– nice players, but not the kind of guys Stephen A. Smith will deliver passionate soliloquies about their signings. Unless a disaster season sours Anthony Davis on Los Angeles, the best guys available will be role players like Brooklyn's Joe Harris, old guys like Denver's Paul Millsap and New Orleans' J.J. Redick, and aging defending champions Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka. 

There are a few enticing restricted free agents who might not get their offers matched (Boston's Jaylen Brown, Brooklyn's Caris LeVert, and New Orleans' Brandon Ingram). But the good ones are likely to get extensions (Toronto's Pascal Siakam and Sacramento's Buddy Hield). It’s hard to imagine suitors camping outside of Toronto guard Fred VanVleet’s house the night before signing opens, although if they watched this year’s Finals, maybe they should.

Who’s pumped about this deal? Lesser-tier front-court options like New Orleans' Derrick Favors and Denver's Mason Plumlee, who suddenly find themselves the best-looking dudes in the bar at closing time. If you’re a star who wants to force his way out of town, Paul George-style, this summer will give you Woj’s full attention and plenty of excited headlines. For Cleveland and OKC, who are looking to deal veterans, the shrinking free-agent market makes Kevin Love and Steven Adams and their huge deals much more enticing. And the Eastern Conference as a whole should be happy that Draymond is stashed in the West, particularly Durant and anyone with a sensitive groin.

If Draymond’s outside shot and physical conditioning continue to decline, this could all blow up in Golden State’s faces, though this season he proved he could shed pounds and drain threes when it counted. Undersized big men, even the great defenders, can fall off a cliff quickly (see post-Pistons Ben Wallace), and Draymond’s turnover rate as a ballhandler has been climbing for two seasons.

But the Warriors are hoping that added rest and more pick-and-roll helps all that -– with the core all locked up, it’s easier to give Draymond and Curry some rest for the first time in five seasons. And as the Blazers series proved, the Green-Curry pick-and-roll remains one of the NBA’s most devastating plays.

In an age of player empowerment and relentless team-switching -– no Clipper or Laker has been on their team more than two seasons –- it’s refreshing to see the Warriors keeping the band together. (Curry is now the NBA’s longest-tenured player with one team.) Nike will be happy no one has to fight over No. 23 for many years, Steve Kerr will cede control of the practice music volume, and Rich Paul can finally say he had a client stay put. 

The Warriors' dynasty might have waned, but this move means they’ll get a chance go down swinging.