What History Says About the 9th Pick as Raptors Fall in NBA Draft Lottery

Ninth isn’t ideal, but it’s not exactly a disaster

The Toronto Raptors entered Monday night’s NBA Draft Lottery hoping to move into the top four or at the very least stay put at No. 7. The odds of climbing weren’t in their favour, and the basketball gods didn’t intervene.

Instead, Toronto will pick ninth overall in a draft class that many believe is wide open once the first few selections are off the board. It’s a spot the franchise has landed in three times before, and the results have been pretty encouraging.

Raptors History

Back in 1997, the Raptors held the ninth pick in a draft headlined by Tim Duncan, a can’t-miss prospect out of Wake Forest who lived up to every expectation. Toronto went with a high-upside high schooler from North Carolina named Tracy McGrady.

It turned out to be a home run, although not for Toronto. McGrady developed into a Hall of Famer with Orlando and Houston, joining Duncan and Chauncey Billups as the only members of that class inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame.

Twelve years later, the Raptors hit again. DeMar DeRozan, drafted ninth in 2009, spent nearly a decade in Toronto, became a six-time All-Star, and played a central role in the team’s rise to relevance again.

In 2016, Toronto used the ninth pick on Jakob Poeltl. While not as decorated as McGrady or DeRozan, Poeltl has carved out a solid career as a reliable starting centre and remains part of the team’s long-term plans.

Three picks. Three impact players. That is a better track record than most teams can claim at No. 9.

Best No. 9 Picks

The ninth pick has quietly delivered some of the most accomplished players in NBA history. It may not come with top-five hype, but it has produced Hall of Famers, champions, and franchise cornerstones.

Dirk Nowitzki, drafted ninth in 1998 by Milwaukee and traded to Dallas, became a 14-time All-Star, league MVP, and NBA champion. His career changed how the league viewed international talent and big men who could shoot.

The Suns took Shawn Marion in 1999, a four-time All-Star and core piece of their high-tempo teams who later won a title with Dallas. Three years later, they struck again with Amar’e Stoudemire, who jumped straight from high school to Rookie of the Year and six All-Star appearances.

Andre Iguodala, drafted in 2004, became a Finals MVP and key contributor to four Warriors championships. Joakim Noah followed in 2007, earning two All-Star nods and a Defensive Player of the Year award as the anchor of Chicago’s defence.

In 2011, Charlotte landed Kemba Walker, a four-time All-Star and the franchise’s all-time leading scorer.

It’s a strong group. When the ninth pick hits, it can change everything.

What Are the Odds at No. 9?

The ninth pick has produced a bit of everything over the past two decades. Between 2002 and 2022, 21 players were selected in that slot. Some became stars, others reliable starters, and some never quite found their footing.

Six of those players developed into All-Stars. That includes names like Stoudemire, Noah, Iguodala, Walker, and DeRozan. That represents about 29% of the time that teams landed a player capable of becoming a major piece of a playoff contender or franchise leader.

Roughly seven or eight others became long-term starters or dependable rotation players. Poeltl, Rui Hachimura, and Deni Avdija fall into this category. These are players who may not carry an offence or fill highlight reels, but they have carved out roles and provided consistent value.

The rest, about 30 to 35%, never lived up to expectations. Patrick O’Bryant, Ike Diogu, Mike Sweetney, Frank Kaminsky, and Kevin Knox II either bounced around the league or failed to stick entirely.

It is a wide range of outcomes, but the track record shows that the pick holds real potential. Finding the right player is what matters most.

The Average Outcome

The stars and the busts tend to get most of the attention, but the average ninth pick usually lands somewhere in between.

Look at Poeltl. He has never made an All-Star team and likely never will, but he has put together a long NBA career as a dependable starting centre. He defends, rebounds, and plays within his role. That kind of player may not change a franchise’s direction, but he helps build a solid foundation.

Hachimura and Avdija fit a similar mold. Both have started games and found success as complementary pieces. In a league that values versatility, players like this are important.

This is the most common outcome at No. 9. Not a star, not a miss, but a useful player who fills a role. With the Raptors already on their way back to playoff contention, that might be exactly what they need.

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